ORLANDO, FL—It's hard to make a blanket statement about the climate of retail real estate in the state of Florida because its regions are so diverse. You are going to find a completely different consumer in the Panhandle area than you will in Miami and Dade County, John Lambert, executive vice president and Florida retail market lead at JLL (RECon booth C1001), tells us.
As far as overall performance goes, though, South Florida is the leader. “The focus is Miami simply because it's a gateway city,” Lambert says. “We're seeing an influx of foreign capital going into South Florida, and foreign retailers have also taken note. Chains from Europe and South America are looking to Miami-Dade as their entry into the state, and in some cases, the country.”
“Miami has significant retail developments underway, supported by the return of the housing market,” says Lambert. He estimates that there are about 10 projects going up around Miami, totaling $10 billion.
One of the new developments going up is Brickell City Centre, a 5.4 million-square-foot mixed-use project being developed in the financial district by Swire Properties that is planned for a 625,000-square-foot shopping center. Lambert also points to tenants seeking space in the Design District, as well as South Beach and even suburban Kendall, where JLL has done leasing at the Palms at Town & Country, a 700,000-square-foot open-air lifestyle development, which has a tenant roster that includes Kohl's, Dick's and Nordstrom Rack.
Central Florida, heated up by Orlando, is also looking bright. Lambert points to the area's strong tourism draw as the main driver of the market's growth. He cites data that project 57 million tourists to visit Metro Orlando this year, up from 55 million in 2013. Hotels and apartment complexes are going under development there to support the growth, and that means more consumers for retailers to target.
The two areas that are lagging a bit behind in the state are the southwest and northeast. But Lambert did have some favorable things to say about them. “Southwest Florida has been lagging, but the Naples-Fort Myers market is coming along nicely” he reports. “We thought Jacksonville was slow to rebound, but our office and industrial teams are spending a lot of time and effort there, and seeing positive improvements.”
There are a few statewide trends Lambert is seeing, for one thing, the grocery market is heating up. Publix Super Markets, traditionally, the strongest player in the state, could see some competition from Walmart's expanding Neighborhood Market concept.
“Walmart and Publix are really going head to head,” Lambert says. “Clearly, Publix is the dominant grocer in the market. They are the elite. Since they've done so well, they have attracted competition like Walmart's Neighborhood Market.” He also sees Dick's Sporting Goods making a statewide expansion push.
As with other markets across the country, expanding retailers are facing a challenge -- a lack of new retail real estate development. It's bound not to last, though, Lambert predicts.
“The time will arrive when we are back in a development mode,” he says. “There is a lot of pent up demand. If it's really well thought out, controlled and managed growth, it will be embraced by almost every submarket.”
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