CHICAGO—Chicago is on the front lines when it comes to the struggles that middle-market grocery companies are facing, while competitors targeting consumers in both the lower- and upper-income brackets expand and flourish. At the end of last year, Dominick's, a household supermarket name in the area, closed its 72 stores.
However, it hasn't been all bad news for retail real estate landlords, Lew Kornberg, executive vice president and the national lead of the retail tenant representation practice at JLL (RECon booth C1001), tells us. So far, only 28 vacancies remain, and a number of potential tenants are looking at those locations.
Among the chains that have taken up space are upscale grocers Whole Foods Market and Mariano's, which are both looking for more Chicago-area exposure.
“While it's never good to lose a major retailer, like a grocer of this size, the impact was mitigated, to some extent, by the net absorption of other grocers that opportunistically stepped up and took advantage of the hole created by the Dominick's departure,” Kornberg says.
Supermarket chains aren't the only outfits looking to fill these vacancies. Some theaters, fitness chains and other big-box retailers are also interested in the empty stores on a case by case basis depending on their size, Kornberg says.
The Dominick's closures illustrate a larger theme that is happening across the retail landscape—more consumers are flocking toward either value or luxury when it comes to brick-and-mortar shopping across all sectors, not just groceries.
“The middle ground is a hard place to operate these days,” Kornberg points out. “That's irrespective of what it is that you might be selling. Differentiation continues to be a driver in terms of retail success. It's going to be increasingly more difficult for the mighty middle to succeed. They're either going to have to go upstream or they're going to have to look more to the value customer and merchandise accordingly.”
Other than the specialty grocers, Kornberg sees tenant expansion in two areas: fast-casual restaurants serving healthier options and international retailers.
“Chicago might not be the first outpost for an international retailer, but because of the viability and strength of the retail marketplace, it is almost always included in international expansion at some point,” he says
When it comes to the area's retail real estate transaction market, luxury is in the lead. Investors are primarily interested in the city's urban high streets, especially Michigan Avenue and Oak Street because both have limited supply and low vacancy rates. Plus, areas around Downtown Chicago have a growing residential population on which retailers want to capitalize, Kornberg says. Downtown proper, as well as Near South, North and West are all targeted neighborhoods, both by investors and retail chains.
“There is a strong desire by a lot of retailers to establish themselves and be more flexible in how they go about that to spread their footprint in the urban core, as opposed to what it has been historically, which is a big grab in the suburban areas,” Kornberg says. “There's particular interest in the urban core and high street. A lot of institutional investors view that as a safe haven.”
In Chicagoland's vast suburbs, the picture is more scattered. Instead of one particular region outperforming another, success is more on a municipality-by-municipality basis.
For the most part, ground-up retail real estate development is only taking place when projects are almost completely pre-leased. Most building taking place consists of the redevelopment of older structures.
But the same goes for most of the country. What Chicago has going for it is consistent economic stability, Kornberg insists.
“We don't see the high highs or the low lows,” he says. “We tend to be a little bit more insulated from that. Chicago remains a strong, viable market overall, and one that is attractive to all different types of retailers.”
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