As part of our coverage of ICSC RECon 2014, we're bring GlobeSt.com readers the leaders in the retail space of commercial real estate. We talked with Shaun Riley, senior managing director of Faris Lee Investments to get his take on the investment scene in retail. Join Faris Lee at booth #C150M during the event.
GlobeSt.com: Can you give us an update on the retail investment market since RECon 2013?
Shaun Riley: Overall, the market continues to have strong momentum. Investor demand across the board has been substantial for all retail product types and there is a clear shortage of inventory in relation to capital looking to be placed. Despite the 10 Year Treasury Rate increasing 75 basis points from a year ago, Cap Rates have compressed 50 to 75 basis points, which is further testimony that the market is robust and doing exceptionally well.
GlobeSt.com: How has the investor's mindset changed over the past year?
Riley: Investors have a higher tolerance for risk. I think that stems from the general consensus that leasing activity is increasing, vacancies are on the decline, and debt remains very attractive. In most areas of the country, new retail development has been very modest, so when the leasing metrics improve and new debt can be obtained near historic lows with interest only terms now available, more often than not, investors feel their risk is sustainable.
GlobeSt.com: Where have you seen the most recovery in the retail industry?
Riley: The recovery in retail has been most concentrated at the far ends of the spectrum – luxury and value. The mid-level soft good retailers have been the slowest to recover. Retailers are also entering a new paradigm with increased competition from online retailers. But, the good news is that the lack of recovery in this subsector is being replaced by expansion of new quick serve restaurant concepts and specialty grocers. We're advising our clients to really consider the length of lease they give to retailers who are not in growing industries. The ability to be agile enough to accommodate the ever-changing trends of retailing industry is key to the success of any center.
GlobeSt.com: What are some noteworthy market conditions investors should be considering?
Riley: The current environment presents a window of opportunity seldom seen to maximize value. We know interest rates will increase eventually and the cap rate compression we are seeing has had a great run, but has a finite life. The storm from distressed properties has been weathered thus far, but there is well over $1 trillion of commercial real estate debt coming due in the next three years which could negatively impact the market. If an investor has assets in their portfolio they don't plan on owning for at least the next five years, the current market presents a great opportunity to maximize value.
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