Five years into recovery--

Europe deals with deflation fears… EU voters elect right wing anti-EU candidates: The talk is Europe finally has started to rev up, but then you read these headlines. Unemployment remains high—it's even increasing in stalwart Germany and GDP is hardly better than anemic continent-wide.

U.S. housing price increases slow down… Housing starts lag: The talk is housing is improving. Prices are way up in some formerly crash-and-burn markets like Phoenix (still 30% off peak) and Las Vegas (44% off peak), but that closer look shows they remain way off market highs. Prices have recovered to past peaks or above in some less boom-bust markets like Denver and Dallas, but much of the buying action is for all cash with limited available inventories. Higher mortgage rates, the prospect of increasing interest rates, and stricter credit standards all stand as hurdles in the way of many buyers, who just cannot afford to be owners. If the numbers of sellers increase, price escalation probably will slow. So yes, the housing market is better, but recovery is spotty and more Americans must view their home as a nest, not an investment nest egg.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.

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