You can continue to try to ignore the black swans swirling over your head, but don't think you can avoid their presence or you may get badly soiled. Obama and many others may think the US can just withdraw from the world and just talk about climate change and coal and cutting defense, but the rest of the world has a very different agenda. As I have pointed out in the recent past, that was the thinking in the US in 1941 as London was being bombed to rubble. Not our problem and we don't need a big military.

Bin Laden may be dead, but he has many who seek to emulate or even exceed him. The desire of the Islamists to conquer the world has never changed from the days of the crusades, and now they are trying to create new bases in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, N Africa and parts of western China and Southeast Asia. Ignoring Syria two years ago was a massive game changer. Obama thought he could just say we don't know who to trust so we will not send arms, and it would all go away. In fact, ignoring the real problem in order to look like he ended overseas US involvement in messy wars, and failing to understand what was really happening by Obama and Hilary, is now metastasizing into a major threat of massive conflagration in the Mideast which pits Sunni against Shiites. There is no way to control this once it gets out of the confines of Syria and Iraq. Terrorists are being groomed, plots will be hatched, and the threats to the US and Western Europe will intensify. Obama got reelected using this line, and Hilary thinks she can become president, and the world is left to deal with the black swans.

There is no way to predict how this is all going to unfold over the next few weeks and months, but add this to Russia sending tanks and trained soldiers into Ukraine and Obama again doing nothing at all, and we are headed toward a very unstable Eastern Europe and Middle East. That instability has many possible ramifications for investors. Treasuries may rise in price as capital flees in even greater amounts to the US for safety. A terrorist attack could occur in Europe or the US in the next year or two as the jihadists from Syria and Iraq are sent home to do a new suicide mission. This just as the administration clamps down on the intelligence agencies and NSA to not do things that might connect the dots. The military is already materially reducing R&D budgets and is making major reductions in capabilities just as we need to be doing the opposite.