When Phillip Johnson designed the SONY building back in the early 1980s along Madison Avenue, large corner offices were the order of the day and so were expansive executive board and wood-paneled dining rooms. No longer— office buildings, laced in granite and marble and designed with executive suites for corporate luxury are now just so passé and much too unwieldy for bottom lines. Today companies want to squeeze in as many workers as possible into less rentable space and much prefer wide open floor plates. That makes mere 30-year-old relic buildings candidates for 21st century style condo conversions. And developers now see bigger value in the high-end condo projects than in either office or hotels. The marble and granite part may still be popular, but in kitchen countertops and shower-bathroom accommodations rather than in vast entrance lobbies and curtain wall.

In Manhattan, ultra luxury condominium towers rise up like mushroom spikes in midtown and downtown office districts. At Park and 56th and along West 57th Street—three soaring structures race skyward, remarkable primarily for their banal designs and staggering asking prices. Jumping on the bandwagon as expected, the new SONY building owners announce their plans to convert the so called Chippendale-top building into super expensive apartments on one of Manhattan's most shadowy office corridors. A decade old hotel wedged into the narrow midblock on W. 52nd Street reboots into condos too, with units marketed (surprise-surprise) well into the millions. Downtown the fabled Woolworth Building gets the makeover treatment across from City Hall. These and other priced off-the-charts residential units hardly are located in welcoming homey districts—and most of the people who end up buying them likely will not be spending much time in them. That's not the idea.

Of course, who would want to raise a family at Madison and 55thStreet and how many Fortune 500 CEOs or hedge fund moguls—the ones who can afford the king's-ransom price tags—require 6,000 square foot pied-a-terres even with remarkable views of the city below? Their accountants have been telling them for years to steer clear of New York City income and property taxes anyway. Wealthy old line New Yorkers won't touch these buildings—they will live in traditional residential neighborhoods, many in coops along Fifth, Park and Central Park West or in townhouses on nearby side streets.

The market for these new condo projects is wealthy offshore folks who need a place to park money away from the turmoil or uncertainty of their home countries and in one of the world's most stable real estate markets and reliable economies… They buy these apartments like gold bricks or private equity stakes. These ghost owners may pop in very occasionally to avail themselves of the city, but the doormen and porters at these buildings will not be overly taxed by activity and may need to work on remembering the names and faces of residents so they don't bar the entrance when duplex owners suddenly materialize from time to time.

New York developers have been erecting these buildings profitably in non-neighborhood districts for years. In past decades there were Olympic Tower, Trump Tower, Museum Tower, and Time Warner Center… The Plaza Hotel was partially converted a few years ago—and all found their market… But how many Russian oligarchs, Middle East potentates, and Chinese tycoons are there? Even if you throw in a few Texas oil barons, major league ballplayers, and NBA stars—how many people will buy into all the current projects at the current reach for the sky prices. And specifically how successful will the projects that look like reaches be? An example is the West 52nd Street conversion on a very nondescript block with an entrance opposite a loading dock.

I will never bet against New York, but how much is too much? And while a relative few can pay incredible amounts for places they will barely use, thousands of tenants protest to keep Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town as affordable rental housing in a city that increasingly prices out its core population. Something has to give.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.