Having trouble putting money out, sustaining a decent yield? Who isn't? It's been a consistent theme too much capital chasing too little quality real estate product, and the smart money is holding onto stabilized, core product in the top-tier, 24-hour markets.

So investment managers and private equity players find themselves stretching—their investment parameters, the range of markets they consider, the property types they seek, and the ultimate deals they do—to keep their clients and partners happy, and most of all to increase their short-term fee revenues. If you do not put money to work, the bottom line weakens and your investors start to look elsewhere. So what if the chronically slow growth U.S. economy lives off artificially-sustained low interest rates, consumers are hamstrung without easy credit, wages for most Americans have stagnated, corporate earnings really do not support stock prices, inflation for everyday items like food is rising, and the Middle East energy region (on which the world economy still depends) descends into a perilous state of greater dysfunction.

Now clearly, the real estate markets do not resemble the overheated 2006-2007 period of sky's-the-limit deal making, but here are some of the concerning indicators of over-reaching:

Sub Five Percent Cap Rate Deals: Always a red flag, when investors begin getting comfortable with making deals at below five percent cap rates, you know trouble lurks ahead. Always!

Opportunity Fund Sellers: Some of the big private equity players have been unloading investments they made during and after the crash at solid markups. These deals involve major urban properties in leading 24-hour cities and the buyers typically are core-oriented institutional investment funds with backlogs of dollars to put out. The sellers will get their nice promotes, but what will they do with the proceeds they want their limited partners to reinvest with them?

Tier one-and-half: Research mavens come up with various categories for markets—the tiers have become recently popular. Really there are only a relative handful of reliable 24-hour cities (and not their suburbs by the way) for core investing. Otherwise you are working a timing play on the economy. When you get beyond New York, DC, San Francisco, Boston, parts of Los Angeles, the bedrock of Chicago's Loop, and maybe downtown Seattle, you are out of tier one. Houston is having a good run, but this is a classic boom-bust market in the middle of an energy boom. With few cycle-proof markets, core advisors need a rationale for going into Nashville, to keep investing in Austin, or for taking a stab at Center City Philadelphia. They start to tout “tier-one-and-a-half” markets to provide an imprimatur for what are much less durable, secondary locations.

Data Centers: These are the new sexy industrial investments—we no longer warehouse products, we process clouds of data. But how many of these buildings do we really need and without a savvy operator partner how do you manage them? No matter, you require some of these in your portfolio to be cutting edge and sophisticated, especially with the demise of so much of that old, formerly core warehouse product.

Build-to-Core: If you can't find core, then you build it. And the new buildings will be more core than the older Class A competitors, because they have the latest amenities that tenants want. All makes sense. But development is getting more expensive and is always more risky. Vacancies in most markets remain relatively high and rent levels appear to crest in the top cities… There is just so much new product you can build without softening less-demand intense markets.

Investing in Markets Too Small for Institutions: This is a current favorite selling point for wannabe managers, who cannot raise enough to compete for larger core product in top-tier markets. They say: “We compete where they won't because the size of deals is too small for them, but where we can find good value.” Fair enough, but these commodity markets suffer thin demand and are ripe for crashing in any economic downturn.

It's time for investors to be more on guard—it's hard to know when you have crossed the line between stretching and over-reaching.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.