MARLTON, NJ—On the heels of its South New Jersey office report, Jason Wolf, principal of Wolf Commercial Real Estate (WCRE), based in Marlton, NJ, tells GlobeSt.com in an exclusive interview that the market is getting stronger and showing signs of growth, but it's not too crazy yet. Wolf spoke to his about his thoughts on Southern Jersey and Philadelphia.
GlobeSt.com: We just wrote about 6.8% cap rate deal in Atoona. Is that a sign the market is overheating?
Jason Wolf: The investment market is active and showing signs of overheating. When you can go borrow money and leverage that deal at 3.5% interest rates, it will appear as a much more attractive deal, so your cash return might be a little bit higher. But you can't write about many good credit tenanted 8.6% retail deals in the Philadelphia region. They don't exist. There are multiple parties now also bidding on owner occupied assets and we are seeing many user sale deals in bidding wars, especially locally here.
GlobeSt.com: But the market there is pretty solid because of medical and education, right?
Wolf: Medical and education has without a doubt kept this Southern New Jersey market from crashing. We also don't have an overbuilt market or a market with functionally obsolete buildings like you may see in Northern NJ. If the Eds & Meds occupants were to pull out of the market like the financial sector did 4-5 years ago, forget it. They have a huge presence here along with the financial, mortgage and government service sectors.
GlobSt.com: What about the impact of people moving to Downtown Philadelphia? Is that helping the office market?
Wolf: Center City Philadelphia is getting a lot of positive press recently. And a lot of the major REITs, particularly Brandywine Realty Trust taking control of the Philadelphia CBD. They're seeing something. Landlords are seeing corporate America, like Comcast and others show significant growth and expansion interest. You see significant incentives and you're seeing a younger population move into Philly. It's hard to locate an apartment complex for less than a 5-6% cap rate, at best. There's a demand for the younger generation working and moving into urban areas, which is what we're seeing.
GlobeSt.com: Would you call this over exuberance with commercial real estate in the area in general? Or is this a natural progression?
Wolf: In the almost 20 years I've been involved in this business, commercial real estate as a whole is supposed to be a long-term investment. If you're able to ride out these waves, the opportunities in this marketplace right now are incredible. Investors that have cash and access to equity/debt are capitalizing on these opportunities. We're seeing bank owned/distressed assets in Southern NJ trade at $40-$50 a foot and replacement cost can be over $200 a foot to build. The investors with cash that were able to whether that downturn, they're going to be the ones that come out even stronger. We always take a more optimistic tone at WCRE. There are always opportunities out in the market, you just have to know how to find or create them.
GlobeSt.com So it's a pretty stable commercial real estate market?
Wolf: We're in a stable place. If you look back three to five years ago, all tenants were doing was restructuring their leases. The leases that were executed at the top of the market with high rents, most of these tenants went back and renegotiated and restructured (they did a blend and extend transaction with their Landlord). We are seeing less blend and extends now. Helping clients realize the potential to reduce overhead costs was a win win for Landlords as well. They were able to secure tenancy, obtain an extension and help promote tenant retention as well. We are seeing less of this now and more expansion and growth. The smaller businesses are once again showing signs of optimism, banks are providing credit again and the tone is more bullish.
GlobeSt.com: So we're in a landlord's market?
Wolf: It's still a tenant market, but you're seeing real signs of expansion for the first time in the last five years and landlords are providing less concessions and rents have shown stability.
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