Do Not Ignore The Pope-"We Are Now In WWIII

As a real estate person you probably think, I am operating here in the US and the geopolitical issues don't really affect me, or at least not negatively. Last week Putin consolidated his effective leverage over Ukraine and Russia kidnapped a Estonian police official. Step one to begin pressure on Estonia. Israel and Egypt are not finished in Gaza. That has a long way to go. Israel stopped only because it was starting to run short of ammunition and Iron Dome rockets and Obama refused to provide the needed back up. China continued to exert its influence over the South China Sea, and its confrontations with those countries. Iran continued to drag the nuclear talks to a non deal in a few weeks and will lever Obama to extend again in exchange for help with ISIS, thereby allowing Iran to continue its progress to a bomb. ISIS beheaded a Brit and had time to readjust its forces while Obama diddles and does nothing but talk. Libya is in full civil war. Europe teeters on the edge of a new recession, with Italy already there. Obama essentially was turned down by the Arab and European countries when he asked for their joining the fight against terrorists. Only Syria said, sure, go ahead and wipe them out. And in summing up all of this, the Pope, of all people, said we are now in the piecemeal stages of WWIII. Just reflect on that for a moment. The Pope. The man of peace warning the world to act. Stating it is OK with God to attack ISIS. And you think you can just sit back and ignore all of this.

The western world is currently leaderless. Obama diddles in incompetence. Merkel is afraid to do anything because Russia can shut off the gas. The UK politics are such that Cameron is sounding strong but really doing not much. France is burdened with a bad economy and continual changes in the cabinet. There is no Regan Bush, Churchill or Thatcher. Nobody who has the brass to do what is right as a leader and defy the political pressures. There is no Maggie Thatcher to do what is needed regardless of the politics. In July 2007, Bush gave a speech defending his surge decision against huge pressures to pull out, and in that speech he detailed exactly what would happen if we did not pursue the surge, and if we pulled out earlier than the commanders advised. Everything bad he predicted would happen if we pulled out as Obama ordered, has happened.

So why should you care. Because the black swans have taken over now and there is no hunter to kill them. America will not be able to just go on as it had after 9-11, ignoring the wars. No more fantasizing that Putin was a proper law abiding leader. No more making believe the US can withdraw from the Mideast and let the Muslims kill each other. Their intent is to kill all of us. This is the modern day version of the crusades. Muslims vs Judeo Christian beliefs. It has not changed in a thousand years. Go read a description of the crusades and see how similar it is, and in the exact same geography.

The US, and especially Europe, will not get away with business as usual this time. The Pentagon has warned Obama that the defense cuts have made it impossible for the military to carry out all of the missions required now to fully defend the US and US interests abroad. He has ignored them once again. This is how things go from bad to worse historically. After wars the US disarms and then the bad guys ramp up and we are caught left to catch up. That is where we are today. Exactly as it was in 1914, 1941, and 1950. The result is there will be many more bad things happening over the next two years. There could be disruptions in the world economy. There could be periodic disruptions in capital markets in Europe. In the end there will be a major military war in the Mideast before this is over. This will go on for several years, and it will get much worse until the US builds its forces and gets fully engaged again. China will take advantage and push the envelope in Southeast Asia. Putin will push the envelope in the Balkins.

The world is going to get a lot uglier now, and Obama does not have the competence, nor experienced advisors to deal with it. Ben Rhodes was a creative writing major in school and worked as a political speechwriter. Susan Rice has proven to be just a political hack. Kerry is totally ineffective. If you think none of this will matter over the next few years to your business, I suggest you go reread your history books. When the Pope says we are now engaged in WWIII, you better pay attention. My black swans are now arrived in force.

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Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.