Call it the new (or maybe old) shopping center math, courtesy of David Henry, President and CEO of Kimco Realty Corp.
There's so much demand for retail space that a small amount of new development in the community and neighborhood shopping center sector, “green shoots” in his terminology, is taking place, he said at this week's Barclays Global Financial Services Conference. Yet rents remain some 20 percent to 25 percent below their pre-recession peak.
Why? It comes down to location, location, location.
Overall, Kimco's business is more than healthy, with occupancy at 94.8 percent, and so is the industry, he said. Rents, occupancy and renewals are up, helped in no small part by a growing U.S. population, an improving economy and “virtually” no new development.
“We're down to less than 100 [new centers per year],” Henry reported. “The appetite for developers to buy large tracts of land, go through years of zoning and entitlement battles, and then get financing is very limited. That is very helpful in terms of us recovering rents.”
Meanwhile, almost 77,000 new stores will open around the country over the next couple of years, he said. Yet overall rents are still 20 percent to 25 percent below 2007 levels.
“There has to be an asterisk in all this – it's very geographic. [In] places like Long Island, we never missed a beat,” Henry explained. “But there are other parts of the country that continue to be soft – Phoenix, Las Vegas, Northern Florida.”
The result is that the stronger markets are now seeing some development, creating what Henry calls a inflection point – rents have risen enough and demand is strong enough to justify a small amount of building.
“It won't change the dynamics of supply and demand,” he says. “But it is a sign of health and a sign of recovery.”
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