WASHINGTON, DC—The volume of new-unit delivery through 2015 may tap the brake pedal when it comes to apartment rent growth, but it appears that nothing is going to bring the vehicle to a full stop, at least not for the three or four years. In a report on the multifamily sector, Cassidy Turley predicts annual rent growth of at least 2.5% to 5% nationally, notwithstanding projected delivery of 350,000 units through next year, or double the historic norm.

For one thing, the apartment sector has already absorbed 300,000 new units, again, double the historic norm. Demand has exceeded new supply for the past three-and-a-half years, says the report, prepared by a Cassidy Turley team led by chief economist Kevin Thorpe.

“So despite fears of overbuilding (from a national perspective), there is a lot of evidence that multifamily fundamentals will remain strong,” according to Cassidy Turley. “New deliveries will push vacancy up from its razor thin 4.1%,” although not enough to bring it back to its long-term average of 5.4%.