SAN DIEGO—Craig Killman, West Coast retail lead for JLL, compares several west coast markets to other core US markets and says they compare favorably. Killman says San Diego, West Orange County, West Los Angeles (mid-Wilshire to downtown) and the Bay Area are as strong as any other core market in the country, but as with any trade area, it can be a tale of two cities.
Sitting down with GlobeSt.com, Killman takes a closer look at Los Angeles and San Francisco's booming retail corridors in this exclusive Q&A before the retail industry heads to the ICSC West Coast Conference in San Diego later this month.
GlobeSt.com: In Los Angeles, what types of retail properties are investors seeking?
Craig Killman: The two hottest categories in Los Angeles right now are specialty food-anchored neighborhood centers and high street retail. Major specialty grocers, like Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, are driving the recovery as the wealthy segment of the trade area continues to grow and increase in net worth. The areas with the lowest retail vacancies continue to be Rodeo Drive, North Beverly, Robertson, Melrose, 3rd Street Promenade and the up and coming Abbott Kenney in Venice. These high street trade areas are all surpassing pre-recession highs for rents and occupancy, and are different in the sense that people are looking for an investment that will hold real value down the road – there is a significant amount of international money floating around, so areas remain competitive for quality space.
GlobeSt.com: What type of local economic forces could potentially impact retail?
Killman: As the chasm between the “haves and the have nots" widens, the economy will become more and more of an issue. The high-end market is doing well, as is the bargain basement value sector, which is being driven by dollar stores, fast fashion and lower-end super markets. California is always going to be a desirable place to live but as the cost of living continues to outpace the rate of inflation and living expenses in the rest of the country, we expect corporations, individuals and families to struggle to maintain their expendable income.
GlobeSt.com: Are you seeing any new retail concepts infiltrating the market?
Killman: Retail concepts are looking for smaller footprints that are more efficient in space and design. The major change is in the incorporation of technology into bricks-and-mortar to further integrate digital with the physical spaces in stores. The retailers who take advantage of multi-channel selling, which includes bricks and mortar, digital and mobile, are the ones that are thriving. They are reaching the consumer where they feel comfortable browsing and buying, but most importantly they are creating conduits to reach the powerful buying power that is harnessed in the millennial generation – giving them the ability to converse in real time about products, share experiences, and then purchase. By 2018, Millennials will “out-buy” the Baby Boomers for the first time and successful retailers are meeting that challenge today head on with virtual dressing rooms, digital sizing and virtual product walls, and options to purchase online and then pick up in store.
GlobeSt.com: In 2015, will Los Angeles continue to grow, or a will there be a decline?
Killman: I'm confident that 2015 will see similar retail growth as we've seen in 2014. There is finally ground up development both in the core with vertically integrated mixed-use projects, and in the more affluent suburban markets. Economic changes and growth will not start to slow down until late 2016, early 2017, when supply could once again become depleted based on the history of demand in primary trade areas. That being said there is still a lot of economic growth to be experienced in all markets.
GlobeSt.com: Switching to San Francisco, which retail properties are investors seeking there?
Killman: San Francisco is the hottest retail real estate market on the west coast; The City and The Peninsula, all the way through San Jose are on fire! The reason is simply that the entrepreneurial and high-tech industry has generated high-paying white-collar jobs, which is resulting in a high level of disposable income. The big shift today from past years is that this generation has little interest in owning a home immediately, so they have more disposable income in their 20s. This demographic group wants to be urban, nimble and spontaneous. They have the ability to move around the country to capture the next big job offer, whether it's in Seattle, Austin or Boston so the thought of owning a home is not the aspiration it was for past generations, so we're seeing a big push in the development of mixed-use in the urban core of San Francisco.
GlobeSt.com: What impact are the local economy and taxes having on retail in general?
Killman: Not everyone in San Francisco can be a Google, LinkedIn or Facebook millionaire at 27, and the rest of the population is seeing housing, energy, water, food and transportation costs soar. It comes down to two things: consumer confidence and disposable income. If the local economy is strong, like it currently is in San Francisco and the surrounding area, the effects of increased taxes are not felt as drastically as in slower economic areas.
GlobeSt.com: What types of shifts are you seeing in new retail concepts infiltrating?
Killman: Flexibility is the name of the game in San Francisco, where demand is way outstripping supply. Traditional retail space is scarce, which leaves retailers that wouldn't do two-story or second floor retail with the dilemma of finding alternative types of real estate offerings to stay in the game. The Millennials are even more predominant in this hi-tech, entrepreneurial environment, and are driving the retailers as in other areas throughout the country to meet the digital movement or they are gone.
GlobeSt.com: Do you see 2015 as more of the same, or will the market experience a decline?
Killman: San Francisco has so much momentum right now that it will not slow down anytime soon. One potential issue in San Francisco that I see, and even the rest of California, is the fact that if the state cannot sweeten the pot in tax incentives for businesses, this could lead to an exodus. Currently there is an outflux of jobs going to California's neighboring states, and once a company is gone, there is no way to get them back because the employment base won't be able to afford to come back and reestablish themselves with the cost of living and housing.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.