NEW YORK CITY—Following the signing of Robert Schiffer, managing director at SL Green Realty Corp.to the development panel,RealShare NEW YORK is shaping up to be chock-full of fascinating discussions and intriguing information. Schiffer oversees One Vanderbilt, SL Green's ambitious 1.6 million-square-foot office tower at Grand Central Station.

Slated to take place on Oct. 9th, the 13-annual installment of the conference will take place at the Roosevelt Hotel. The half-day conference promises to include many networking opportunities and a solid line-up of speakers, including Ray Kelly, former commissioner of the New York Police Department and the president of Cushman & Wakefield's newly formed risk management services division, and Seth Pinsky, former head of the Economic Development Corp. under Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

Cushman & Wakefield officials speaking at the conference will focus on safety and security. “One of the most important matters facing commercial real estate in NYC and many CBDs throughout the world is the safety and security of the people who are living and working in those environments,” says Ron Lo Russo, president, NY tri-state region. “Given the geo-political climate around the world, keeping New York safe is of paramount importance to the growth and prosperity of the city and its economy.”

As a result of that mindset, C&W back in March created a risk management services division and hired former New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to lead it. Kelly plans to talk at RealShare about the state of the world and how it impacts NYC.

“There always are risks that have to be addressed, but some are unique to NY,” he tells GlobeSt.com. “Real estate owners and occupiers need to do a realistic assessment of their critical assets to determine vulnerabilities; they can be man-made or natural as we saw during Hurricane Sandy. Some businesses and public facilities, including hospitals, didn't think they could be adversely impacted by a natural disaster were caught unaware.”

Wise real estate investors are worried about the possible effect of global affairs, says

Arthur Mirante II, principal and tri-state president at Avison Young, and a scheduled speaker at the conference. “War or continued tensions could cause a spike in interest rates or a general fright that makes people want to wait before making long-term investments, and in this business that's not good.”

But for now, the market is right where it should be, says David Schectman, principal and executive managing director at Eastern Consolidated and a speaker on the “Transactions in Focus” panel.

“Prices are not too high and cap rate compression is not irrational,” he says. “You have to look at both in the context of the available debt and equity and rates at which both are being provided. A 3.5 cap is not unrealistic when you have debt available at 3.1%. That still leaves room for positive leverage.”

Still, he notes, the good times aren't going to last forever. “We are headed for a correction. The combination of President Obama leaving office, Mayor de Blasio's continued unbridled spending and the City Council's commercial rent regulation will cause prices to fall in 2016.”

Even if that forecast proves true, the city's immediate future looks bright, according to several scheduled speakers on the city's future.

“Values are rising monthly in the Hudson Yards district and interest has been generated from developers around the globe,” says Robert Knakal, chairman, Massey Knakal Realty Services.

Adds Colliers International's Michael Cohen, president, tri-state region, “Harlem is interesting. Generally speaking, Upper Manhattan is still not an acceptable alternative to Midtown or Lower Manhattan. But perhaps one day, given the great transportation access and upgrades along 125th street and Columbia University, we might see Upper Manhattan as an overflow market.”

Of course, the key to staying ahead of the market is understanding what tenants want. , “Increasingly, both businesses and individuals are seeking the same thing: diverse, amenity-filled communities that are walkable and proximate to clusters of talent and employment,” says Pinsky, now an EVP at RXR Realty.

However, he notes, “New York City's winning competitive hand continues to draw talent from around the world, which is driving up costs and stoking demand. These twin trends are pushing people and companies to look for more affordable supply in areas that were, in the past, considered peripheral. The question for the city going forward is whether we will be able to produce sufficient new supply in both prime areas and emerging areas to accommodate the growing demand.”

Others note that the challenge of thriving here is the city's ever-changing landscape. “I plan to discuss the perpetual and dynamically constant reinvention of New York, ranging from the Financial District to the Hudson Yards District, to be potentially followed by Midtown East and rippling out to Brooklyn and the other boroughs,” says Oskar Brecher, EVP and director of development at the Moinian Group, who will speak at the conference.

"Looking at the city from 40,000 feet, who would have thought that 57th Street would turn into a massive construction zone virtually along its ‎entire length? This vigorous entrepreneurial spirit is the DNA that sustains the city.”

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Rayna Katz

Rayna Katz is a seasoned business journalist whose extensive experience includes coverage of the lodging sector, travel and the culinary space. She was most recently content director for a business-to-business publisher, overseeing four publications. While at Meeting News, a travel trade publication, she received a Best Reporting award for a story on meeting cancellations in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.