CHICAGO—The market for net-lease products has gotten so hot in the US that investors have begun to seriously compete with one another for properties that host non-investment grade tenants, Matthew Berres, a Chicago-based vice president at JLL, tells GlobeSt.com.

“From a velocity standpoint, you're seeing a lot of deals for $5 million and under,” especially for banks, and outlets such as Walgreens or McDonalds, he says, but the lack of new development means that all the 1031 exchange investors, public REITs and other institutional investors hunting for deals “are driving a very competitive bidding process.” And that competition has investors looking elsewhere for the higher yields still available in other properties such as big-box retail.

An extraordinary amount of money is pouring into the single-tenant net-lease market. At the end of the second quarter, the trailing 12-month transaction volume totaled $48.4 billion, up 48% from a year prior, according to statistics from JLL. Industrial properties accounted for 27% of the total, office properties were 51% and retail 21%.

All this activity has also significantly compressed cap rates. By the second quarter, the average single-tenant cap rate was 6.5%, down 54 bps from a year prior and 41 bps from the first quarter. This compression has narrowed the spread between the 10-Year US Treasury rate and average single cap rates. At the end of the second quarter, the spread was only 387 bps, down from 504 bps one year ago.

And a continuing economic recovery, coupled with unwillingness among many companies to launch new construction projects, should keep demand high but also restrict supply, resulting in what Berres calls a “yield-starved environment.”

In 2007, for example, Walgreens began building about 650 new stores, he says, but this year the top retailer is only expected to start about 100 new stores. But even though this lack of development activity has helped push down rates, investors remain attracted to properties with investment-grade tenants and that can guarantee a 5% to 6% return. “When they come on line you see them generating significant interest.”

Still, Berres adds, cap rates for Walgreens have hit historic lows, and competition for these and similar properties has gotten fierce. “Public and non-traded REITs are getting aggressive in the low 6% cap rate range while 1031 capital is driving pricing deep into the 4% to 5% range, especially on trophy assets. I've even seen some McDonalds listed at 3.5%.”

But developers have remained a bit more active in sectors like big-box retail, buoying the cap rates for buyers. “That's what makes these properties an attractive investment,” says Berres. JLL, for example, has high hopes for a 139,265-square-foot retail outlet at 2860 S. Highland Ave. in suburban Lombard occupied by The Dump furniture store, which the firm just put up for sale last week. Although The Dump is non-investment grade, the double net lease property is located in a major retail corridor, a big plus for investors who are either getting priced out of investment-grade assets or just looking to diversify a portfolio.

“Lombard has excellent demographics and high traffic counts so the intrinsic value is strong,” he says. “It makes for a sound investment, but can also balance a portfolio from a yield standpoint. If you're out there buying other net lease properties with 4% and 5% rates this one will give you a nice, overall blend.”

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Brian J. Rogal

Brian J. Rogal is a Chicago-based freelance writer with years of experience as an investigative reporter and editor, most notably at The Chicago Reporter, where he concentrated on housing issues. He also has written extensively on alternative energy and the payments card industry for national trade publications.