NEW YORK CITY—Three years ago next month, Lee & Associates opened its first office in New York. GlobeSt.com caught up with James Wacht, president of Lee & Associates' Manhattan and Queens offices, to hear how the market has changed in this EXCLUSIVE interview.
GlobeSt.com: Since Lee & Associates NYC opened three years ago, what changes have you seen in the office, retail and investment sales markets?
Wacht: The biggest story has been the emergence of Midtown South as one of Manhattan's preeminent office districts. But another trend is the growing desire of many technology companies to locate in Brooklyn and the conversion of former industrial buildings to office use. It will be interesting to see the success that Jamestown has with the six million square feet of space recently acquired at Industry City and the 963,000 square feet that Jared Kushner has at Dumbo Heights.
One number sums up NYC's retail market: $3500 per square-foot. That's the current market rent for prime retail on Fifth Avenue and it's driving retail rents in the outer boroughs. Williamsburg and now Bushwick have become a hot destination for big-name retailers opening brand-name stores and also opening new concepts. Our offices has closed over 30 retail deals in Williamsburg/Bushwick in the past two years and is currently handling 26 exclusives in those two neighborhoods. Even the Bronx is being considered now for significant retail expansion by national retailers.
While “hot” is an overused word, I really can't think of a better term to describe the investment sales market. Almost all asset classes including office, residential and retail are selling at very low capitalization rates. Despite the specter of significant changes to the rent laws that will ultimately favor tenants, there is a huge appetite for rent regulated properties that are being purchased at sub 4% capitalization rates. Retail condominiums also are in big demand by local investors with some sales exceeding $ 3,000 per square-foot. Development sites for luxury condominiums are now being sold for in excess of $1,100 dollars per square-foot in prime Manhattan neighborhoods—like Tribeca, the West Village and Chelsea—and $450 per square foot in Brooklyn. My boldest prediction for 2015 is that prime residential development sites in Manhattan may sell for in excess of $1500 per buildable square foot
GlobeSt.com: Do you see these trends continuing?
Wacht: The office market will continue to strengthen over the next 18 to 24 months. If employment numbers and economic growth slow down, however, the trend will quickly reverse itself. The Investment sales market will stay strong as long as interest rates stay low and foreign investors continue to pour money into the market. For the most part, foreign investors view Manhattan, and now even Brooklyn, as a good place to park their money for safekeeping.
Local investors will begin to pull back and wait on the sidelines until pricing becomes more attractive and the market becomes less of a momentum play. The quick rise of retail rents in the prime neighborhoods will begin to level off over the next year.
GlobeSt.com: What are the three most significant factors you see influencing the New York real estate market over the next five years?
Wacht: Interest rates, employment and economic growth, and foreign investment.
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