Real estate lags, the stock market predicts… So should we be worried?

Really only perceptions among investors are finally changing by turning more pessimistic. For real estate markets—retail and hotels will register the impacts sooner.

The recent volatile downward moves on Wall Street and world exchanges only underscore what has been obvious—the global economy remains impaired and has lived off extremely low interest rates and various forms of stimulus.

  • Europe has not recovered from the 2008 debt crisis—ageing demographics and welfare state systems challenge growth.
  • China's debt-fueled infrastructure and real estate boom has run out of gas.
  • Brazil suffers from China's malaise and India is too unwieldy (corrupt and inefficient)
  • Fear over West Africa's Ebola epidemic threatens further shockwaves

The good news is really bad news—energy prices are down (Sorry Mr. Putin—add Russia to the impaired country list). That's because the world economic engine is in this distress and demand for energy has slackened.

The other good news—the Fed and world bankers will need to keep interest rates low-- only signals that the underlying economies remain in bad shape.

So the U.S. looks good in comparison—unemployment is down and corporate profits have been good… Energy finds make us less dependent on the Middle East.

But as we have noted repeatedly—average wages are stagnant while people pay more for benefits; and pensions are shrinking as more baby boomers approach retirement.

Lower gas prices take some of the edge off and may provide families with more pocket cash at Christmas. But overseas markets will struggle to buy U.S. exports and multinational corporate profits could sag. Companies which have been slow to hire and focused on milking technological efficiencies will be even less likely to expand workforces.

Will the Ebola scare now cut into air travel as fear takes hold about the close-quarters on flights? And any further stock market losses could crimp consumer confidence among the approximately 50% of Americans who own stocks. For the other 50% who do not own stocks—that's a leading indicator of their more parlous financial state--they probably do not have savings. And lower energy prices in the U.S., governed by world oil and gas markets, will be felt in oil and gas country. Drillers will cut back, for starters.

On the real estate front:

The early soundings suggest another weak holiday season at malls—lower gasoline prices are offset by the other negatives... Shoppers will be drawn to sales and retailers will move goods by at least appearing to slash prices.

Hotels need to be on guard for slackened occupancies, if travel is compromised. There is nothing like an epidemic to keep people close to home.

Office tenants have been expanding gingerly if at all—the gradual pace of recent vacancy declines may short circuit. Some development projects could delay groundbreakings.

Warehouse markets deal with less export traffic; a stronger dollar makes imports cheaper, but if consumers pull back it's never good.

The lukewarm housing market will struggle to gain further momentum outside the gateways where offshore money gravitates to park cash—the U.S is a better place to be than anywhere else, but affluent foreigners are not interested in suburban homes.

We like apartments, but high-end rental product could feel a chill in demand.

And cities with energy company concentrations could see leasing activity constrained—“Houston, we have a problem.” Well, maybe at least temporarily.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.