Real estate lags, the stock market predicts… So should we be worried?
Really only perceptions among investors are finally changing by turning more pessimistic. For real estate markets—retail and hotels will register the impacts sooner.
The recent volatile downward moves on Wall Street and world exchanges only underscore what has been obvious—the global economy remains impaired and has lived off extremely low interest rates and various forms of stimulus.
- Europe has not recovered from the 2008 debt crisis—ageing demographics and welfare state systems challenge growth.
- China's debt-fueled infrastructure and real estate boom has run out of gas.
- Brazil suffers from China's malaise and India is too unwieldy (corrupt and inefficient)
- Fear over West Africa's Ebola epidemic threatens further shockwaves
The good news is really bad news—energy prices are down (Sorry Mr. Putin—add Russia to the impaired country list). That's because the world economic engine is in this distress and demand for energy has slackened.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
