Just a short few years ago several of the major funds and many smaller investors scooped up the single family foreclosure inventory at deep discounts. They swept millions of houses off the market in a relatively short time span and had a huge negative impact on the available inventory for individual home owners who were seeking a well priced home to buy for themselves. This rapid sweep of the inventory also rapidly forced an increase in prices in the most hard hit markets like Phoenix. While I always believe it is very good to have the private sector weep away the problem properties after a serious collapse of the market, the results from this have had a negative impact on many homebuyers and the economy potentially.

First time buyers, and those with lower incomes who needed or wanted to buy a well priced house were effectively kept out of the market because prices rose too much,and there was little inventory to purchase in many markets. As prices rose, many would be buyers were simply unable to execute. There are several; other factors which also combine with the lack of inventory and higher prices, to prevent the housing market from really returning to a robust market essential to the recovery of the economy. The first is the obscene fines levied by Obama and Holder on the major mortgage lenders to satisfy the populist political rhetoric of get the bankers. The big banks were claimed to have done all sorts of terrible things to the poor home buyer who lied on his loan app and who took out home equity loans to go on vacations and buy big screen TVs. While the banks were sloppy in some paperwork, the reality was the borrowers were irresponsible and Barney Frank forced the banks to make loans in neighborhoods we all knew were not sustainable for heavily leveraged home ownership. For Fannie and Freddie and some major institutional buyers of mortgage backed securities to now claim they were mislead, is simply to say we had no idea what we were doing and we bought the portfolios because the salesman took us to a great strip club. So now the White House can say we really got those bankers. What they fail to say is we effectively ended the top mortgage lenders from making loans to the average buyer, and especially not the first time buyer. The banks have moved on, but the economy and potential home buyers are screwed. Just as no banker for generations will ever help the government bailout failed banks like Countrywide or Bear, or Merrill, none will reach to make anything but prime quality loans. So now even Ben Bernanke can't get a refinance of his mortgage.

Add on that the student loan burden taken on by over a million students, is going to inhibit the first time buyer market for many years and in the end will result in another tax payer financed bailout. There is no way over 30% of these kids will ever be able to pay these loans in full, and the result is their credit is damaged long term. The whole system run by the government encourages and incentivizes schools to add staff and increase tuition, because the government run loan program is essentially a subsidy to such profligate spending by college and trade schools.

So the combined result of all these issues is a much slower housing recovery than should have been the case, a non functional mortgage market, inflated prices in many markets, and a much slower economic recovery than we might have had. There were much better ways to have handled the defaulted mortgages in many cases, leaving people in their homes in possibly millions of cases, and having a normal level of inventory to keep prices from rising so fast. With the White House essentially controlling Fannie and Freddie so they can sweep the profits to cover part of the federal deficit, and with the White House playing populist politics with the lenders, and also being the only source of student loans, we have government further compounding the impact of the funds sweeping away the inventory and forcing a unsustainable price increase.

None of this is going to improve for a few years, and so the result will be a slower housing market than should be the case, a slower economic recovery, and a topping out, and possibly a decline in house prices for a couple of years. Eventually most of those investor owned houses will go back on the market, probably mostly many at the same time, and prices will be further modulated, so don't project a major housing recovery anytime soon.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.