NEW YORK CITY—If there's one thing the city's real estate executives can count on, it's change. In fact, that maxim never has been more important than it is now, according to real estate executives who spoke Tuesday in Midtown during a REBNY-sponsored panel discussion entitled, “New York Real Estate Forecast: Market Trends for Today & Tomorrow.”
“I've never seen anything like it in my 32-years in the business,” said Peter Riguardi, president, New York tri-state region, Jones Lang LaSalle.
David Falk, president, New York tri-state region at Newmark Grubb Knight Frank identified the explosion of the technology industry as the biggest driver of the commercial real estate market in the last five years.
Tech tenants, who largely have flocked to Midtown South, are now eyeing other markets, he contended. “You can't really find 50,000 square foot floorplates in Midtown South and tenants don't want to stack vertically so technology companies are looking at some Midtown buildings and some firms will go Downtown for the value play.”
The general migration of tenants to the West Side also will spark some changes, says Falk. “Were going to see some right sizing and larger space coming available with all the relocation, and these locations aren't in the statistics yet.”
On the residential front, Diane Ramirez, CEO, Halstead Property, explained that the residential market has paused because of the 18% increase in average sales prices. “When they see this kind of increase, buyers think they've peaked while sellers think the price increases will never end so they are overpricing,” she said.
Meanwhile, residential inventory is being driven by new developments, apartments coming online, and a little bit of hesitancy from buyers, added Ramirez.
After the panel briefly discussed the pied-a-terre tax, affecting dwellings valued at $5 million and higher, Riguardi spoke about the importance of one particular generation and the need to accommodate it with affordable housing.
“The city needs to think about millennials and the fact that $5 million apartments aren't going to drive this market forward over the next few years,” he said.
The growth of that demographcic group is making office building owners sit up and take stock, asserted Falk. “A lot of our buildings are asking us what to do to attract millennials.”
Younger residents of the city are poised to play an important role in the retail sector too, added Joanne Podell, Cushman & Wakefield. “By 2030, 30% of retail sales will come from millennials. So we need them, they are all our futures.”
Retail is seeing additional dramatic changes, she noted. “With New York attracting 53 visitors a year and the decline of malls, we're seeing some retailer look at urban stores for the first time. And the Internet is creating some new retailers like Bonobos, of course Apple and even Amazon.com. And who'd have thought we'd see more department stores here? But Neiman-Marcus, Nordstrom and another Saks Fifth Avenue are all coming.”
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