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Election Ramifications

The election results will impact CRE

By Joel Ross | Updated on November 08, 2014

What should we conclude from the election and the latest employment data. First the employment numbers.  While the data seem good they are not great when you look at U6 and participation. Participation still has a ways to go to be vibrant. There are now a lot of people collecting money from the taxpayers and not paying taxes. It is clear that this is not sustainable and raising taxes is clearly not the solution, but would in the end be a loss of revenue. U6 has another 300 basis points to drop to be in line with an average good year in the US historically. That is a long way to go.  At current levels of job growth, it is just beating population growth, so to get where we need to be will require substantially better job growth. The latest Challenger data suggest that large companies have slowed hiring and anecdotal reports suggest employees are being stretched to the limit. It is going to take  awhile and some indication that Washington can actually accomplish something useful before employment steps up to where it needs to be.

 

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