BELLEVUE, WA—Top real estate executives continue to be bullish about improvement in the US housing market, but less than they have been over the last two years and have grown significantly less confident in the world economy since January, says a recent 2014 Imprev Thought Leader Survey. “Housing enthusiasm among real estate business leaders overall is still strong, but has definitely cooled down during the last two years,” says Renwick Congdon, chief executive officer of Imprev, a locally based technology company.
“What's most interesting is that leaders of larger brokerage firms are typically far more bullish on the outlook for housing and the US economy than leaders of smaller brokerage firms, but comparatively less confident in their firm's ability to be more profitable in the next 12 months,” says Congdon.
Respondents included more than 270 broker-owners and top executives at leading franchises and independent brokerage firms that were responsible for nearly half of all US residential real estate transactions last year.
Key findings of the report are below.
US housing market demand: Approximately half (52%) of the real estate leaders surveyed say that housing market demand will improve or significantly improve over the next 12 months, down from 58% last year. 42% say the housing market demand will stay the same, up from 35% in 2013. Only 6% say it will deteriorate. Optimism is significantly lower than reported two years ago in the 2012 Imprev Thought Leader Survey where 70% of top real estate executives predicted that the housing market would continue to improve over the coming year.
2015 housing market confidence: Confidence in next year's housing market is a little less bullish compared to last year's survey: 18% are “very confident” in the 2015 housing market, down from 23% last year. However, 79% are “somewhat confident,” up from 73% from last year's survey. Only 3% say they are “not at all confident” in the 2015 housing market.
World economy confidence: More than half the real estate leaders surveyed say they have grown less confident (55%) in the world economy since January; that compares to 24% last year. Profitability concerns – size matters: When asked how confident real estate business leaders are that their brokerage businesses will be more profitable in the next 12 months, 43% are “very confident,” down from 48% last year. The larger the brokerage, the lower the confidence in greater profits ahead: Only 32% of leaders of brokerages with1,000 or more agents are “very confident,” compared with 51% of leaders of firms with 50 agents or fewer.
US economic outlook: For the second year in a row, there's a split view among real estate leaders on what will happen with the national economy over the next 12 months: 47% believe it will improve (down from 50% in 2013), 44% say it will stay the same (up from 37% in 2013), and 9% believe it will deteriorate (versus 13% in 2013).
Economic confidence locally vs. globally: Overall economic confidence increased significantly when the executives look closer to home. Nearly 10 times as many real estate business leaders say their confidence in their local economies has improved since January vs. overall confidence that the world economy has improved: 48% are more confident in their local economy since January compared to only 5% for the world economy, 21% for the US economy, and 39% for their state economy. A remarkable 55% are less confident in the world economy since January, versus 7% less confidence in their local economy.
Size of firm and economic confidence: Leaders of the largest real estate brokerage firms were the most bullish on the improvement in the US economy in the next 12 months, with 61% of top execs with firms of 1,000 or more agents saying it will “improve,” compared to 34% of leaders of brokerage firms with 51 to 100 agents.
The Thought Leader Survey was developed by Imprev to provide insight on key business challenges top executives face, encouraging an exchange of ideas and solutions.
The 2014 Fall Imprev Thought Leader survey was conducted October 20 to 31, 2014. 68% are male, 32% are female. Approximately one-third (32.5%) of the 270 respondents are 61 years old or older; 32.5% are ages 51 to 60; 25% are ages 41 to 50; and 12% are ages 31 to 40. None of the respondents are under 30.
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Natalie Dolce
Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.
