Some recent private chit-chat heard among a group of prominent real estate dealmakers:

  • “Land prices are out of reach.”
  • “I'm struggling with low yields.”
  • “Opportunities are harder to find.”
  • “You can't make the numbers work on (building) condos.”
  • “Not buying existing core assets.”
  • “Spread compression is too much.”
  • “It's insane pricing on industrial.”
  • “Underwriting is loosening.”
  • “It's a tremendous time to borrow.”
  • “Debt has never been cheaper.
  • “We're seeing limited or no call protection--loans will come back to you.”

Have you been hearing the same thing?

But then you read about the deals at “record” prices—mostly in the 24-hour markets as money keeps getting pushed out by institutional investors which need yield and foreign buyers who don't have anywhere else to put it.

Yes, you can borrow cheaply and lenders count on the security of core properties.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.