TUCSON—Vacancy rates in Q3 2014 remained flat from last quarter at 8.2%. This has been the story of the market for the last year now, with vacancy not experiencing a drop greater than 80 basis points since Q3 2013 when the rate fell to 8.2% from 9.0% in Q2 2013. Net absorption for the quarter was reported at positive 50,776 square feet, a down quarter compared to Q2 2014 when an adjusted 113,521 square feet was absorbed. Year-to-date, the retail market has recorded 199,017 square feet of positive absorption. Supply chain analysts report container cargo shipments are at some of the highest numbers since before the recession started. This cargo number reflects retailer confidence in the upcoming holiday shopping season. GlobeSt.com caught up with Nancy McClure, first vice president, CBRE, to get her take on Tucson's retail numbers.

GlobeSt.com: Can you expand upon the supply chain analysis?

McClure: Retailers ordered more goods, anticipating a stronger 2014 holiday selling season, and thus the cargo imports from suppliers increased this year from past recent years.

GlobeSt.com: Aside from the holiday season, are the numbers up due to the economic cycle or are there other factors at play?

McClure: Last year, at this time, we had just had a Federal government shut-down that affected consumer confidence and spending trended downwards. This year, consumers are feeling better—confidence reports are trending upwards. With gas prices down, people are feeling like their money is being freed up and more vigor towards holiday buying season is being shown. We just concluded an early November election so the consumer is also feeling the certainty of what resulted in the elections.

Also, what last year showed us is that the trend toward gauging holiday sales on the “Black Friday” shopping day is not what will be the norm in the future. Cyber Monday became a bigger indicator than in past years. The Omnichannel retailing has blurred some lines that had always been the traditional barometer. Early indicators in 2014 have shown that people started their holiday buying earlier this year. In sum, the retailers are banking on a stronger holiday selling season by shipping in more goods to stock the shelves for the enthusiastic shoppers.

GlobeSt.com: Where do you see this sector in Q4?

McClure: The second half of 2014 has shown an increased velocity in deal making with retailers. Most parts of the country are seeing this same trend and Tucson is reflective of the leasing activity. There are many retailers and restaurants still actively trying to strike deals before year's end and if the volume of deals get done, Tucson should see some positive absorption of its vacant spaces! Most retail real estate agents are “heads-down” and busy finalizing negotiations to bring those deals to completion.

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