First, the 321,000 new jobs reported by the BLS is off by about 100,000. It is unclear where and how the error occurred but a more accurate number is 225,000. That from a highly credible source who knows the numbers as well as anyone. Just look at the trend line and it is clear the November number is an anomaly. The real number is good, but there is still a very low participation rate. U6 is still about 300 basis points too high. Progress, but far from strong success. The other good news is that there are beginning signs of some small wage increases, although not yet sufficient to make a material difference in spending. If nothing particularly bad happens for awhile, wages should start to slowly increase. If oil stays low priced, and wages do inch ahead, that is all good news for consumers. The offsets are healthcare just jumped due to Obamacare with the much larger deductibles plus on average 5% higher premiums. The other hidden issue is devices and internet bills. These have leaped in cost and for some families with teenagers it can be $400- $500 a month. That is way up from just a couple of years ago. We never understood that Face Book, Twitter and sexting would negatively impact consumer spending, but they do and noticeably. So don't get all giddy over this last jobs report. It is likely to be shown to have been materially over stated and 2015 will likely be another moderate growth year, 2 ¾%-3 ¼%. Then there are all the new regulations that have been issued in the past couple of weeks including the war on coal and other EPA regulations that will raise costs. Financial regulations and fines are not yet over as now the NY AG wants to try to get publicity for his run for governor in four years. There are several cases now in or headed to the Supreme Court which will materially change or confirm the actions of Obama. Obamacare could get blown up but more importantly, the EPA is likely to be stopped from enforcing many of its new regulations depending on the coal industry suit headed through the courts. There is also the case where the issue of when is McDonalds a employer rather than a franchisor. Given all of this and the major weakness of the world economy, it is unlikely to see strong US economic growth and it is unlikely to see the Fed raise rates at all until Q3 and then only moderately. We have a long way to go before rates are back to historic norms.

Now to add to all of this we have mob mayhem all across the country, and especially in New York. There is no question the Ferguson jury was right, and there is probably a very good reason the NY grand jury was right. What you never hear on TV and the internet, and what gets cropped from the left side of the video, is the black sergeant who was supervising and directing the white cops. In fact it was not a true chokehold. It was a sanctioned takedown hold. I have personally used the exact same thing when assisting cops subdue a violent criminal in NY. Given the size of Garner, there was little choice to the cop who was being directed by the black sergeant. In any event, the encouragement of Sharpton, who is a professional scammer and agitator, who is in it for the money, by Holder and Obama and DeBlasio, is rapidly recreating the racial divisions of the sixties. Most people in NY would not even want to be in the same room as Sharpton, but Obama has him to the oval office. DeBlasio has him as his advisor on police matters. DeBlasio has ordered the cops to stand back. That is not how the NY cops have so effectively handled protests up to now. So the result is the statement by a professional protestor today who said how great it was that “the cops let the protestors maraud through the streets and did nothing”. Bratton says this will just peter out. I don't think so because DeBlasio and Obama have specifically told Sharpton, according to Sharpton, to “keep up the pressure”. They use him to carry out their political agendas. If this continues, as I expect it will, there will become continued disruption in major cites and in time there will be economic costs, job losses, and eventually violence. None of this is good for CRE. You do not need these protestors disrupting your retail tenants and blocking access to your mall or stores and offices.