PHOENIX—More than 200 attended the 2014 RealShare Phoenix Metro conference where multifamily was a hot topic. Booming population growth paired with an incomplete housing recovery has primed the sector for exponential growth. The Phoenix Metro has embraced the influx of capital and renters by choice. Is this multifamily momentum sustainable? Leaders from the Multifamily and Market Momentum panel took on this discussion

Cliff David, vice president of investments for Marcus & Millichap moderated the group. Panelists included Tyler Anderson,vice chairman, CBRE; Linda Fritz-Salazar, associate broker, Kasten Long Commercial Group; Brandon Harrington,senior vice president, Walker & Dunlop; John Kobierowski, senior managing partner, ABI Multifamily; and Tom Simplot, president & CEO, Arizona Multihousing Association.

Anderson said there have been tremendous opportunities because of the debt that has been available through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “The availability of capital is incredible,” he said.

“Also helping momentum,” said Harrington, “are the life companies and banks, liquidity from agencies, though there is a lack of product.”

Fritz-Salazar said, “There hasn't been that kind of financing available until the last two years. We've seen a lot of investors come in with cash, but the product is just not there.”

“Owners are still trapped,” said Kobierowski. “They haven't seen enough rent growth. It's only going to get better. We're in the third or fourth inning. Going forward we may see a few bumps with interest rates, but with income and job growth, we'll continue to see improvement.”

Simplot said the biggest struggle is west of I-17. “We've created coalitions, pushed value-add product, we're targeting communities, but the occupancy levels are definitely lower west of I-17.”

Regarding development, Anderson said that with 6,500 units scheduled to be delivered in 2015, developers are bullish. “It's a rosy outlook. The question is: Are we building too many assets at certain locations. We've never had this level of class A product before.”

David said Scottsdale may be one of those areas at risk for overdevelopment.

Asked how all the new A product affects B and C product, Fritz-Salazar replied: “Twenty-five percent of the population are renters. Class A is good for B and C. Not everyone who moves to Phoenix can afford $2 per square foot.”

Harrington said it's becoming more difficult to finance construction. “There is a concern about Tempe and the Scottsdale and Camelback area being overbuilt. Deals that would typically be CMBS, Fannie and Freddie are doing. People outside of our market think this is just the beginning.”

“If we keep going on the same path we're on, we're going to see more urban growth,” said Kobierowski. “Our multifamily market has a lot of legs to it. Phoenix is fairly affordable, great climate, no natural disaster risk. Multifamily has become more of a choice in our market.”

Simplot is concerned that some cities, like Tempe, are passing anti-development laws. “We need to support officials who support development,” he said.

Fritz-Salazar said she sees small groups and individuals with a lot of money on the sidelines. “We're getting a lot of calls from people wanting to come into the market. The market will be very strong in the next few years.”

Harrington said 2014 was really a trough for refinancing. “The next two years are going to be huge for people looking to cycle through. You're going to see a lot of sales in the next few years,” he added.

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