Greece can't agree to elect a prime minister, and now Merkel has said it is OK if Greece leaves the EU. Italy has been unable to pass any meaningful reforms. Cameron is up for election soon and the outcome is very unclear. Italy is in recession. France is essentially in recession. German growth has essentially stopped. Draghi is trying hard, but can't get all seventeen countries to agree on anything. The banks remain weak and the reforms so far are not sufficient, nor timely enough to do what needs to be done to fix the banking system. The whole of Europe is still largely dependent on Russia for energy. While Merkel tries to claim there are now a set of reforms in place and emergency funds, the reality is Europe is sinking further into the abyss and there are far right movements growing all across the continent to stop the inflow of Muslims and to claim they will declare sovereignty from the EU. Virulent anti Semitism is back, except this time the Jews are already headed out with their capital and brains. Over 4,000 very quietly left Europe in 2014, over 3500 in 2013, and the number is growing rapidly.

For most of you who are too young to relate to WWII, this is how it developed. Very bad economics for the masses, ethnic groups to blame, total lack of leadership at the top levels of government, competing agendas between countries, a total hands off attitude by Washington, and a growing anti Semitism to have a scapegoat. In time, just as the Greece situation is developing, poor people seek a strong leader, someone emerges with the promise of national pride and better times, and, over time, the people follow. They conclude they tried the existing government reform and their lives got worse, now they conclude they have no better options on the offing than the fringe parties.

I am certain many of you will think –this guy is over the top. These things can't happen these days. That is what the Jews said in 1938 just before Chrystalnacht. It is what Chamberlain said. It is what the isolationist right wing said in the US until December 7, 1941. I was alive during WWII, and old enough soon after to be aware. I suggest you go to Budapest and look behind the pretty tourist façade. There are very bad things happening now in Europe, and there is no leader in Europe, and surely not Obama, to stop it and lead the way out. There are no Thatcher, Churchill or Regan. Just look at the dollar Euro relation and it tells you where things are headed.

What I saw walking around and read on protest flyers in Budapest, and in non Hungarian, non partisan, credible press accounts, was a canary in the coal mine, and there is nobody in leadership anywhere to stop it. Just look at how desperately needed reform failed in Italy. Draghi is trying, but he has no real power to stop the dangerous political and social forces now forming. Invest in Europe at your peril. Why would anyone invest in Europe when the risks in the US are a mere fraction of those over there. Projected profits are not real until they are in your pocket. Real estate is not diamonds you can hide and take with you.