PHOENIX—GlobeSt.com recently caught up with John Kobierowski, senior managing partner at ABI Multifamily, to find out what direction he thinks the multifamily sector will take in 2015.
Kobierowski says multifamily continues to be one of the stronger sectors with plenty of financing available from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and even local banks—no matter if it's in a secondary or tertiary market.
“We take it for granted that things are financeable,” says Kobierowski. “There are a lot more renters than owners, and renters by choice. A lot of the new construction is so nice, it rivals a home. We won't see that slow down. I don't think there's a market in the country where the multifamily market hasn't recovered. The job reports are good and that shows and improved station in life for many people.
“When things started falling apart during the recession, people began to double up—pulling out of senior housing, bringing grandma home, people got roomates. Students were moving back in with parents. Now student and senior housing are doing well because people are getting their jobs back. We're seeing fewer roommate situations. All this is going to translate well moving forward into 2015.”
On the investment side, Kobierowski says existing owners are expanding ownership, groups with little experience are expanding and those that started in the business flipping homes are making their way into multifamily. This will continue in 2015, as well as the addition of completely new players and foreign investors through various conduits.
“The movement is toward hard assets because they're so stable,” adds Kobierowski.
The condo market is thus far an exception. “We haven't seen condos come back because of financing,” says Kobierowski. “There is a glut of condos for sale; the ones that sell are being sold as condo conversions. People still have a resistance to own. I don't think the condo market will hit until the single family market comes out of its doldrums.”
Kobierowski says there will be more room to move rents as we continue to see job growth in 2015. We will also see a wider use of add-on costs in multifamily—charging for amenities and ancillary services—which all add to the bottom line. “I don't see this trend slowing,” says Kobierowski.
Regarding development, Kobierowski says it will remain strong as building groups are not having a hard time financing. “Multifamily is the first resource for people who are entering or exiting the job force. Then we have renters by choice. It's why we're seeing so many high-end properties with on-sight dog grooming, pet services, dog daycare, beach entry pool, theaters. Builders are hitting all the marks,” he says.
One potential headwind, according to Kobierowski is the slim margins between cap rates and debt. “Any movement in interest rates could affect this. Leverage is a part of this business. Also, some cities are pushing back on redevelopment and putting moratoriums on multifamily. That's always a threat when some communities think they have too much multifamily already.”
A strong tailwind, says Kobierowski, is the appetite for investment in hard assets. “If multifamily is a baseball game, we're in the fourth inning. Some markets, like Las Vegas may be in the third, Denver might be in the fifth. But most of the country is in the fourth. I don't see a lot of issues for 2015. Thank goodness we have common sense constraints—they're keeping everything in check.”
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