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Debt, Deflation, Demographics Implications

SAN DIEGO—What if meaningfully higher rates are still six to 12 months—or more—away? Mitch Siegler of Pathfinder Partners takes a closer look and talks about the 3-D umbrella in this EXCLUSIVE column on the subject.

By Natalie Dolce | Updated on March 02, 2015

SAN DIEGO—“On February 2, the yield on the 10-year treasury note hit a 21-month low of 1.67%. Of course, everybody and his brother believes the Fed will move this year to boost rates but what if meaningfully higher rates are still six to 12 months—or more—away?” That question is posed by Mitch Siegler, senior managing director and co-founder of Pathfinder Partners LLC. Siegler, who writes the below commentary on the subject for GlobeSt.com and says that the party for borrowers—and the wake for savers—may go on for a while. “Macro (global) economic forces swamp micro (U.S. economic growth) considerations. Japan’s continuing deflation, China’s economic slowdown, the stagnant European economy and collapsing oil prices contribute further to deflationary pressures everywhere,” he says. “These global trends far outweigh U.S. job creation and wage inflation (whenever that may come).” 

In the commentary below, Siegler groups all of these forces together under the 3-D umbrella—debt, deflation and demographics. Please note that the views expressed in this column are the author’s own.

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