SAN FRANCISCO—Wouldn't it be convenient if someone had clear, intelligent answers to most of your CRE-related questions? Problem solved. Nina J. Gruen, a.k.a. Ms. Real Estate, a.k.a. the principal sociologist overseeing market research and analysis at Gruen Gruen + Associates, is here to answer readers' questions.

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Dear Ms. Real Estate,

My company is in the process of constructing a 385-unit apartment development in a rapidly urbanizing suburban community. There are about 1,200 multifamily units and approximately a half million square feet of commercial space – mostly offices – within a half mile of our site.

Our permit was conditioned on our renting at least 15,000 square feet of our ground floor space to retail tenancies. I believe that a large proportion of our apartment renters will work in offices and institutions within the immediate area, with many working or attending the state university that's located within a 12- to 15-minute drive of our site.

My question is, what type of tenants are likely to succeed and serve as an attraction to rent our apartments?

—A Multifamily Fish in Retail Waters

Dear Multifamily Fish,

This is a difficult question to answer without knowing the makeup of the retail and service tenants already located within the half mile you referenced. But I'm sure you are aware of not only the makeup of this commercial space, but also have a pretty good idea of how well they are doing. To get a feel for the likely unmet demand for retail space at your site, you or your economic consultant may want to make an estimate of the sales within the categories of retail and services operating from relatively small stores within the 15-minute driving range you mention, and subtract from that estimate the dollars residents of that area (including your apartment tenants) are likely to spend on those categories of goods and services. If you come up with an estimate of unmet demand, seek out providers of the identified goods and services who are successful elsewhere in your region, but not represented within a 10 to 15-minute driving range of your site.

Without having such an estimate of unmet demand from potential retail, it's hard to be specific. But food services is usually a good first choice. If not already duplicated within the suggested market area, my first choice would be a higher quality hamburger restaurant. Other contenders would be coffee or juice purveyors, or an ice cream or yogurt shop. Services are also a good bet, such as a beauty treatment and massage spa, a Pilates studio, and a UPS/Fed Ex franchise package store.

But you will not have to guess if you provide a brief questionnaire for your leasing staff that asks each person who stops by to inquire about the rentals to prioritize their first three choices, as well as to write in others that would have the greatest impact on their personal decision to rent in your building. Good luck. 

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Nina J. Gruen

Nina J.Gruen has been the Principal Sociologist in charge of market research and analysis at Gruen Gruen + Associates (GG+A) since co-founding the firm in 1970. Ms. Gruen applies the analytical techniques of the social sciences to estimating the demand for real estate and to understanding the culture of the groups who determine the success of development, planning, and public policy decisions. She is a pioneer in synthesizing the results of behavioral research with quantitative time-series data to forecast market reactions. Market and community attitude evaluations and programming studies led by Nina Gruen have resulted in the development and redevelopment of many retail, office, industrial, visitor, and residential projects, varying in scale from a single building to large single- and mixed-use projects.