As we look at the world we see Obama has become obsessed with a deal with Iran. Iran knows that as long as they keep the talks going, Obama will not do anything to stop them from getting control of new areas of the region, or of tightening its relationships. The battle for Tikrit being the prime example along with Yemen. Obama is afraid to get Iran upset in any way that might scuttle the nuclear talks. Iran also knows that Merkel will roll over on sanctions to get deals done for German exports which will happen as soon as sanctions are lifted. She has shown that Putin can get away with invading Europe and shooting down a passenger plane, all to enhance German exports. Russia and China likewise will not stand in the way of Iran as it also is a lucrative market and partner for them against the US. Only France has the good sense to stand in the way of Obama. It is clear that Obama is ignoring the pushback from Congress, Israel, the Arabs, Patreus, the former head of Pentagon intelligence, and just about every other expert. It is not clear there will be a deal, but it is clear that if there is one there will be all sorts of very bad repercussions with Congress, for the 2016 election, with Israel, the Arab states, and more importantly, Obama will continue to refuse to stand in the way of Iranian expansion in the region. For Iran, this whole thing has been all about getting sanctions lifted because they know from what has been done already, once they are lifted they can never be reimposed and then they can cheat on the nuclear work and not much will happen, but their economy will thrive and they will be able to fund terrorism and expansion unhindered. Obama is setting the world up for a calamity.

So you wonder what does all this have to do with real estate and you. Everything. If the nuclear deal is signed the world becomes a far more dangerous place as Iran will be let loose with huge economic growth. It will know that until January 2017 and a new US president it can do whatever it wants unhindered. Or at least until Israel decides it can wait no longer and launches an attack. The world is already headed to a very bad place and eventually a very big war potentially, and there will be huge impacts on investments in Europe and other places long term. These things play out over many years, but then there is an event and all hell breaks loose.

We now have ISIS conducting mass casualty attacks in Tunisia and Libya. They are just across the Med from Italy and France. They have already attacked in France. They tried in Brussels, and they have vowed to attack Europe. It would not take much now for them to do this on a large scale using Libya as a base. The Europeans are not as good as the CIA and FBI right now, and so an attack of some sort is highly likely in Europe. Unlike Paris, the next one may have far more casualties and far more impact. I already hear friends who travel extensively talk about not going to France this year. For Jews, going to France has become higher risk. When there is one more mass casualty attack in France or Italy or Spain, then the impact will be noticeable on tourism and the economy there. That is exactly what the terrorists are trying to do.