It would appear that several private REITs are following the TIC industry and failing to deliver what was promised. While just about all TIC syndications I have seen up close are nothing but promoters scamming the mullets, the private REIT world seems to be a much more professional and serious business. However, investors in several older private REITs are now learning that timing is everything and up front loads kill your return on the way out. The pitch was invest and make 6%-8% regularly and at the end of the period of five or even years there will be a good capital gain. Often is has not worked out that way. In the TIC deals I have closely examined, the regular payouts disappeared, the cap ex was greater than the investors were ever told and the appraisals at the time of investment were often materially inflated, as many are. The brokers often don't have a clue about the real estate but are highly motivated by big up front commissions and the prospect of getting the mullet to invest in follow on deals. While there are some private REITs that are well run, honest and do work hard to provide the returns promised, there are too many others, especially in the TIC world, that are there for the fees and the ability to always find new mullets in the ocean of suckers. One day maybe the SEC will finally look into this and especially the TIC business. As of now there are many investors learning for the first time that the pot of gold at the end never existed except in the brokers fantasy.

Yellen gave a speech on Friday which was maybe more important than any recently. It is now very clear rates are not going up very soon, and possibly not until late in the year. When they do she made it clear they will move up very slowly. Maybe at on 12.5 basis points per move. It is now clear the economy is not rocking along with GDP in Q4 at only 2.2% and Q1 likely to be closer to 1%. Unlike last year when Q2 began with warm weather, this year the general feeling of uncertainty and foreboding is more widespread.

The Mideast is now in a full scale sectarian war of Sunni vs Shia. Iran vs Sunni. This time it is not ending soon nor with any sort of deal in the short run. The Sunni have rightly concluded that Obama has abandoned them to get his terrible deal with Ira at all costs. Now interestingly Israel and the Arabs are on the same page. Egypt under Sisi has said clearly the US is not supporting Egypt- our best hope for a Muslim leader to deal with Iran and terrorists in Libya, Gaza and the north of Africa. Obama led from behind in Libya then went home to leave behind a terror haven. The Kurds have said Obama has not provided the help they need. Jordan did not get what it needs to fight ISIS, and Israel is not getting the back up and weapons support it needs to attack Iran if needed. Obama has even destroyed our one true friend relationship in the region. They might reach a point where they just go in and do what they need to do and say screw the US and Europe-this is survival. Obama has simply thrown everything he can toward Iran and a worse than bad deal, at the expense of the world. He has been more damaging and equally the fool as was Chamberlain. The world is at war and even the Pope has said that. This is likely the start of WWIII. That sounds wild and brash to many, but if you pay attention to history, this is how WWI and WWII began. Slowly, regionally and then horribly. It evolves over a few years, and most people think all is well and it s not our war,. That is what the US said in 1914, and in 1938-41. But now those years are winding to a crescendo. Every alliance the US had in the Mideast is shattered. They have now formed a coalition to survive, having concluded that Obama has abandoned them in favor of Iran. For them and Israel, this is existential, and the one player who could have mattered, Obama, picked the bad guy to side with. The just retired head of military intelligence for the US said today he believes the White House is engaged in “intentional ignorance”. Petraeus said last week, Iran is the issue. Even leading Democrats say the same thing.