SAN FRANCISCO—Wouldn't it be convenient if someone had clear, intelligent answers to most of your CRE-related questions? Problem solved. Nina J. Gruen, a.k.a. Ms. Real Estate, a.k.a. the principal sociologist overseeing market research and analysis at Gruen Gruen + Associates, is here to answer readers' questions.

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Dear Ms. Real Estate,

I continue to read articles that Millennials are an important catalyst to the re-urbanization taking place in our cities and urban cores. But how long is this pattern likely to last? When the Millennials get married and have families, won't they have pretty much the same suburban housing patterns as previous generations?

—Not Sure What to Expect When Millennials Start Expecting

Dear Expecting,

My initial response is YES and NO. In previous generations, marriage typically occurred in the mid-20's, and when the second child was born the parents moved from their urban homes to a suburban location that offered good schools and perceived safety. Parents, who can afford to do so, still pursue high quality schools and a safe environment for their children, but the pattern of marriage has changed significantly. Today's marital pattern, for the professional class, tends to be as follows: Living together for a significant period of time, perhaps having a child, but not obtaining a marriage license until making the pivotal decision to no longer rent but to purchase a home. This new lifestyle pattern has resulted in Millennial marriages taking place in the late 20's – early 30's, and parenthood, if and when it occurs, in the mid-30's or later.

Whether or not households decide to purchase their home in the core or move to a suburban location depends upon three factors: 1) Price – how much house in size and quality they can get for their money; 2) the quality of the public schools, and if they remain in the core, will they have to pay the high cost of private schooling; and 3) perceived public safety.

While all are concerned with the quality of the local schools, this factor is only likely to be a determinant in the decision of whether to move to the suburbs for those Millennial households who have children. Based on recent surveys, far less than 50 percent of the professional Millennials households are likely to have children. One reason for this decrease in the desire to become parents is that many female Millennial professionals are as invested in their careers as their husbands. And while I have no corroborating evidence, I suspect that quite a few don't want to invest as much time and dollars on their children as their Boomer parents did on them.

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Nina J. Gruen

Nina J.Gruen has been the Principal Sociologist in charge of market research and analysis at Gruen Gruen + Associates (GG+A) since co-founding the firm in 1970. Ms. Gruen applies the analytical techniques of the social sciences to estimating the demand for real estate and to understanding the culture of the groups who determine the success of development, planning, and public policy decisions. She is a pioneer in synthesizing the results of behavioral research with quantitative time-series data to forecast market reactions. Market and community attitude evaluations and programming studies led by Nina Gruen have resulted in the development and redevelopment of many retail, office, industrial, visitor, and residential projects, varying in scale from a single building to large single- and mixed-use projects.