WASHINGTON, DC—As the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices beat analysts' consensus estimates, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday that home ownership in the first quarter continued its steady decline nationwide, reaching 63.7%. Excepting slight upticks in Q3 2011 and the last two quarters of 2013, the ownership rate has fallen each quarter since the start of 2010; Bloomberg Business reported Tuesday that Q1's figure was the lowest since 1993.

Census Bureau data show that homeownership in Q1 declined 110 basis points year over year and 30 bps since Q4 2014. That dovetails with data showing that the rental vacancy rate—including apartments as well as single-family homes—declined by 120 bps over the past 12 months, and now stands at 7.1%.

For rental housing by area, Q1 vacancies were highest outside metropolitan statistical areas at 9.0%, according to the Census Bureau. In principal cities, vacancies stood at 7.3% ,while in the suburbs it was 6.5%. The rental vacancy rates inside principal cities and in the suburbs were lower than a year earlier, while the change in vacancy outside MSAs was not statistically different.

On a regional basis, the rental vacancy rate was highest in the South at 8.8%, followed by the Midwest at 7.8%. The rates were lowest in the Northeast (5.4%) and West (5.3%). Aside from the Midwest, the vacancies by region were not statistically different from a year ago.

Following a prolonged stretch of continuing deceleration in home-price gains as measured by the Case-Shiller indices, February saw larger year-over-year increases compared to January. The 10-city composite gained 4.8% year-over-year, up from 4.3% in January, while the 20-city composite gained 5.0% year-over-year, compared to a 4.5% increase in January.

Consensus estimates among economists polled by Bloomberg Business and Reuters predicted a 4.7% increase in the 20-city composite. Conversely, the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, which covers all nine US census divisions, recorded a 4.2% annual gain in February, weaker than the 4.4% increase in January.

“While prices are certainly rebounding, only two cities—Denver and Dallas—have surpassed their housing boom peaks,” says David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Nationally, prices are almost 10% below the high set in July 2006. Las Vegas fell 61.7% peak to trough and has the farthest to go to set a new high; it is 41.5% below its high. If a complete recovery means new highs all around, we're not there yet.”

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.