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OKLAHOMA CITY—Forty dollars a barrel. That's the threshold below which oil prices cannot slip without causing some serious impact on commercial real estate. So say three regional market analysts for GlobeSt.com Thought Leader Xceligent. And while the impact of dropping prices has been felt, market diversity is keeping these three metros buoyant. So far.

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According to the Wall Street Journal, Q1 oil prices hovered around $54 per barrel, half of what they were a year earlier. According to Tina Reith, the data provider's analytics associate for the Oklahoma City region, brokers in the firm's local advisory group describe the market as “condensing.” Considering the number of energy-related layoffs, there's little wonder:

“Samson Resources just went through a corporate layoff of 196 employees in an effort to reduce any additional debt within that company due to the current market prices,” Reith reports. “SandRidge Energy has announced plans to lay off 132 employees in Oklahoma with hopes to lower operating costs while sustaining a stable market presence. Chaparral Energy announced that they were laying off 121 employees in February.”

Further, she reveals that Baker Hughes has reduced its rig counts by 34. “Six of those were located in Oklahoma. Currently, there are 877 fewer US rig counts compared to this time last year.”

Still, she adds, office vacancies have been stagnant “over the last three quarters, resting just above 12%. And, despite the fact that industrial vacancy rates increased from 5% to 6%, this change wasn't from the impact of oil and gas but occurred due to a consolidation of space by ATC Drivetrain [a maker of auto transmissions]. The same vacancy percentage is being seen now for OKC industrial as it was this time last year.”

Interestingly, while layoffs have been mounting, few firms have given space back, and the net effect is a positive, she reports: “While concerns have risen due to the drop in oil and gas prices, the Oklahoma City office market saw 10 recorded occupancies in Q1 by energy-industry tenants totaling 31,918 square feet.” Plus, she reports only two recorded vacancies totaling 4,431 square feet. “These transactions resulted in a recorded overall positive absorption of space for the energy industry of totaling 27,487 square feet within the office sector.”

But what of other cities? Xceligent analysts in both Dallas and Denver report much the same, some space given back but not a major impact on the overall office market.  Interestingly, the same is true even in the heart of the Oil Patch, Houston.

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“I don't think there's been much impact in the Dallas/Fort Worth area,” says Xceligent regional director Brad Hauser. In fact, “Vacancy rates continue to trend downward. The Fort Worth market would be the harder hit of the two because it's been stagnant for the last six or seven quarters and we're not seeing anything that would cause it to change in the next six or seven.”

Turning to Houston, which is also in Hauser's wheelhouse, he reports some surprising events. The city's emergence on the global stage over the past few years has given it a diversity of business that is acting as more of shield than ever against the historic vagaries of the energy industry.

“I don't see it affecting Houston as badly as some people think,” he says. “The Houston we're looking at today isn't the Houston of the '80s, when the primary business was even more dominantly energy-related. It's a much more diverse corporate picture and we're growing at nearly 130,000 jobs per year.” That is even with an energy-related job loss of roughly 30,000.

Nevertheless, oil does play a large part in Houston, and the resultant sublease space returned to the market is “substantial,” he says. “Over one million square feet has been brought back since the start of the year, for an available sublease total of around 4.5 million square feet.

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In Northern Colorado, where there's a heavy presence of energy companies, Bridget Berry, the Xceligent's regional director there, reports that “tenants are starting to look for yard and industrial storage space. They anticipate having to lay down a sizeable portion of their equipment if oil prices go lower.

She noted, “oil and gas companies should remain stable in Denver as long as prices stay above the $40-per-barrel mark.” She adds that 15% of the Denver class A office market is occupied by oil and gas tenants, “20% if you include 'halo companies' like accounting and law firms that support the industry.”

And if we cross that $40 threshold? “These companies will most likely reduce more of their workforce and downsize their office space, so our market could see a large uptick in sublease space depending on the price of oil.”

Of the industrial market in the cities mentioned, Denver could face the biggest problems in the mid-term.  Ironically, it may not be because of oil.  “Industrial brokers believe that the market in Denver has dropped below a functional vacancy rate," said Berry. "The market doesn't have enough new construction to maintain the demand it's been seeing. Additionally, the new construction that is being built is for large users, while the majority of tenants in the market are looking for between 20,000 and 30,000 square feet.”

This she says is making local brokers bite their nails a bit, “fearful that we're going to start losing tenants to other markets.”

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