Search
 

Rates Are Not Likley To Go Up Much More For Awhile

The Fed is unlikely to raise rates by September and maybe not until year end

By Joel Ross | Updated on May 16, 2015

It is now very clear there will be no rate reduction in June and the likelihood of September just was reduced by the more recent numbers on a variety of economic data. While jobs seem to be increasing at a moderate rate, they are still not growing fast enough to reduce the participation rate and U6 is still about 200 basis points too high. There are still a lot of unemployed and under employed. Wages are still fairly stagnant, and family income on an inflation adjusted basis is still well behind 2007 levels. Factory production continues to drop and capital expenditure is still lagging badly. Bottom line is there is nothing at all that is suddenly going to light a fire under the economy which continues to suffer from excessive and costly regulation and a lack of confidence in the administration. Obama seems to be intent to just get any deal with Iran to the detriment of all else. It was very blatant that when the kings all snubbed Obama’s meeting this past week, that the Arabs, like Israel, want no part of the deal Obama is likely to cut with Iran. This and the threat of new terror attacks at home have left an underlying concern that leaves many companies with a reluctance to commit dollars to large new projects. 

There is now even a real question if September is when rates move up, although it is still possible.  It seems that the economy will not support any real rise, and the dollar remains too high for raising rates. Since the fed and so many economists have been completely wrong about the economic projections, then there is little reason to believe they have any better picture now. 

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Unlimited access to GlobeSt and other free ALM publications
  • Access to 15 years of GlobeSt archives
  • Your choice of GlobeSt digital newsletters and over 70 others from popular sister publications
  • 1 free article* every 30 days across the ALM subscription network
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM events and publications

*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?

NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

GlobeSt

Join GlobeSt

Don't miss crucial news and insights you need to make informed commercial real estate decisions. Join GlobeSt.com now!

  • Free unlimited access to GlobeSt.com's trusted and independent team of experts who provide commercial real estate owners, investors, developers, brokers and finance professionals with comprehensive coverage, analysis and best practices necessary to innovate and build business.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and GlobeSt events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join GlobeSt

Copyright © 2024 ALM Global, LLC. All Rights Reserved.