SAN FRANCISCO—Wouldn't it be convenient if someone had clear, intelligent answers to most of your CRE-related questions? Problem solved. Nina J. Gruen, a.k.a. Ms. Real Estate, a.k.a. the principal sociologist overseeing market research and analysis at Gruen Gruen + Associates, is here to answer readers' questions.
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Dear Ms. Real Estate:
I recently started working for a mid-sized brokerage company as a broker representing both buyers and sellers of commercial property. The more experienced brokers here have told me that during, and in the early years after the Great Recession, the Bay Area was a “buyers' market.” But now things have changed and it's definitely a “sellers' market.” Prices for even older commercial properties or for land zoned for commercial property have been steadily rising. What does this shift in the market mean for me, and do you have any advice as to how to improve my success rate?
—Wet Behind My Brokerage Ears
Dear Brokerage Ears,
My long time experience in the industry suggests there are no easy answers, and that real estate investments and sales continues to be a highly competitive and tough business.
If you are not already actively involved in establishing relations with real estate developers and investors, the local planning, architectural, engineering and real estate consulting community, you need to join and participate in the activities of professional groups that offer networking opportunities and presentations that will help you learn of the changes taking place in your market.
One of the changes you have no doubt already noted is that well-to-do Chinese investors now make up a significant proportion of those buying major commercial properties in the Bay Area. To be successful, you will have to keep abreast of how differing types of buyers make decisions and what kinds of products and deal points are most important to them. Chinese investors often do not share the same investment goals as the typical American investment company. Cap rates and IRR are often not determining factors. The “word on the street” that I have heard is that being able to park their money where it will be safe in the long run means more to Chinese investors than rates of return. To many Chinese buyers, the long run is not defined as a five to seven year holding period, but rather in terms of decades. The two most important criteria, therefore, are 1) Is the location likely to be as good or preferably better in 20 years? And 2) Is the quality of the commercial product sufficiently high to still have value two decades from now?
As always, successful brokers need to first identify what buyers want and to target those properties that best fit their criteria. In today's market, this includes finding properties that offer the longer term value sought by buyers from China.
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