What Inning Are We In

We now are pretty sure rates will begin to rise from the fed in September or soon thereafter. This will be the most anticipated rate increase in history as it has been forecast for months. So there will be no surprises, the markets fully anticipate it and have priced it in. Most real estate investors who are sophisticated are building that into their modes and are building in a cap rate increase of some degree, depending on the projected exit year. So while values are very likely to top out in the next several months, barring an unexpected surge in the economy, wage growth and inflation, there should not be any shocks to the system in terms of rates or cap rate expansion in the next year or two. Should not be is not the same as will not be. There is always the black swan. Greece may collapse any day now, or even if they find an extension, it may collapse later. Either way Greece is no longer a viable state economically and will not be without a massive devaluation which it cannot have without return to the drachma. Then there are all the other geopolitical black swans sailing over head, like Russia pushing further into Ukraine, or into Moldavia or another small country. ISIS will continue to step up its efforts to stage a terror attack in the west and in Europe in particular.  A terror attack in the US could come at any time. 

So where does this leave us as to upside potential and value creation. The high likelihood is values are reaching their peak soon, whether in 6 months or 18 months is unclear, but we are in the eighth inning for sure. We are closing in on 8 years since the capital markets first began to crumble which was the third week in July of 2007.  At first that was not noticed, but the beginning of the end was that week was the start of the disintegration. Most cycles last 6-7 years and we are well into it. Even if you measure from March 2009 as the start of the recovery, it is 6 years.  As in most up cycles there are already excesses in pricing of assets driven by the Fed. These excesses are never sustainable for long. Regardless if the economy continues to recover, there are limits to how low cap rate compression can go and we are there. As the ten year begins to rise as it is, then the marginal deal starts to get harder to justify and prices begin to flatten, and as rates move further up the underwriting for loans has to deteriorate further or the deals no longer pencil at those levels. We are about at that level now.