NEW YORK CITY—In September of 2000, Jason Ader, a then lodging analyst for New York-based Bear Stearns (which has since failed as part of the global financial crisis and recession and was subsequently sold to JPMorgan Chase), warned investors that surging oil prices, the weak Euro and other signs of economic trouble to come would soon adversely impact the travel and hospitality industries, leading to decreased hotel occupancy rates.

The warning came amid Bear Stearns' own decrease in net income for the third quarter of 5.7%. While the company's revenue rose 6% and its earnings per share also rose, the company had 9% fewer shares than last year's third-quarter because of stock buyouts, and its investment banking revenues decreased 11%. Stock shares, however, had gone up 41% since late July of that year. Bear Stearns, at the time, was becoming one of an increasingly shrinking number of mid-size firms here in New York, as the trend in takeovers was growing.

At the time, Ader said of the lodging industry that, while he had upgraded the lodging sector in January and the Bear Stearns Large Cap Hotel Index had risen more than 25% since then, the industry may top out. He explained, "The lodging industry is very dependent on the overall economy and if there is any slow down it won't be long before it trickles down to the hotels' bottom line."

That was a look at 15 years ago when Bear Stearns wasn't ready to pull the plug yet on the hotel industry, but it had its hands on the chord.

Fast forward to today and according to a recent GlobeSt.com article, the hotel business is booming—for the fourth straight year. R. Mark Woodworth, senior managing director at PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE company, tells GlobeSt.com that 2014 was 2014 was another year of consistent, strong performance for the US hotel industry.

According to STR Inc., demand grew at five-times the level of supply, and the national occupancy reached 64.4%, a level last seen in 1996, he says. “Growing scarcity on a greater number of nights during the year enabled hotel managers to achieve a 4.5% increase in average daily rate and a lift in Revenue per Available Room of 8.2%.”

In aggregate, Woodworth says, these strong fundamentals reveal that the average US hotel studied by PKF Hospitality Research achieved a 12.3% increase in net operating income during 2014. “This marks the fourth consecutive year of profit growth in excess of 10%.”

And what does the future hold? Woodworth forecasts the trend to continue through 2016.

“This six-year period (2011-2016) of continuous double-digit gains on the bottom line will be the longest such streak for the nation's hotels since PKF began tracking the industry in 1937,” he says.

According to STR, lodging demand grew by 3.4% through May 2015 while supply expanded at a 1% annual rate. As a result, occupancies jumped by 3.4% to a 63.6% level, room rates increased by 4.7% and Revenue per available room grew by another 7.2% during the initial five months of the year.

Woodworth tells GlobeSt.com that the data reveals that “the traditional headwinds to industry success (a strong U.S. dollar, fluctuating oil prices and below-average economic growth) have been relatively benign during this industry cycle. The recent industry performance is perhaps even more remarkable when considering the creation and expansion alternative lodging options, most notably Airbnb have occurred during this run-up to a record industry occupancy level.”

There are several factors that suggest the good times will persist for at least another few years, if not longer, he explains.

“The development pipeline is one-third smaller than it was at this time in the previous cycle, thus indicating that the threat of too much new construction too soon is not a concern this time around in the vast majority of domestic markets.”

Another factor he points to includes “Tighter underwriting standards from traditional industry lending sources, escalating construction costs and a scarcity of attractive lodging brands in many locations supports the belief that demand growth out-pacing the lift in supply will likely persist for at least the next two to three years.”

Lastly, Woodworth pointed out that “the two components of economic growth that correlate most closely with changes in lodging demand—business spending and investment and consumer spending—are expected to realize accelerated growth in the years ahead, thus suggesting continued favorable increases in lodging demand.”

Projecting forward, he adds, “should the industry suffer yet another catastrophic event, or perhaps experiences a downturn brought on by a “more normal” economic contraction, the severity of the downside scenario will be mitigated by the premium occupancy levels currently being achieved.”

For the follow-up story, featuring a closer look at the data and charts illustrating the trend, click here.

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Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.