It was December 2000, president-elect Bush had been fanning the flames, stepping up his warnings about the economy just before Christmas and the start of Chanukah, the Federal Reserve began warning about the weakening economy and the word recession has started to pop up with ever-increasing frequency.

Industry experts all seemed to agree that the economy wasn't looking too bright and it could make times tough for retailers, especially in places like New York City, who had, and still have, some of the highest overheads in the world.

On East 57th Street, for example, rents, at the time, were as high as $700 per square feet, a price that in a bear market, could break the bank for any business not excelling in the face of reduced spending, according to one GlobeSt.com story from that year.

While dot-coms were dying left and right, on-line spending that year saw success, while bricks and mortar stores put out the clearance sale signs in the hopes that bargains would bring big spenders. “While almost all agreed that crying recession may be too dire a prediction just yet, they all seem to agree the weak will fall,” the story had said.

Flash forward to today and retail's recovery hasn't gathered much speed as yet, but it has become more consistent. Analytics firm REIS Inc. recently said that “the real estate analytics firm sees this year as, possibly, “the year that improvement in market fundamentals begins to accelerate.” Underpinning this measured optimism is the broader economic recovery, with Reis' chief economist, Ryan Severino, noting that “2015 could be the best year for labor market performance since the late 1990s. The quality of the jobs being created continues to improve which means higher incomes and higher income growth. Cheap energy prices should continue to be a boon for most consumers as they adjust their behavior to correspond with structurally lower oil prices in addition to structurally lower natural gas prices.”

And commercial landlords should take notice,said Jeffrey A. Krieger, a business lawyer specializing in bankruptcy related matters at Greenberg Glusker Fields Claman & Machtinger LLP. In a recent commentary on GlobeSt.com, he pointed out that one women's clothing retailer after another has gone out of business. On Dec. 4, 2014, Philadelphia-based Deb Shops filed Chapter 11. Next came Delia's, based in New York, which filed bankruptcy only four days later. On Jan. 9, 2015, Body Central, based in Florida, a chain with 265 stores, announced that it was closing all of its stores by way of an assignment for the benefit of creditors, an alternative to federal bankruptcy. On Jan. 15, Wet Seal, a Southern California-based company, filed its own Chapter 11. Then on Feb. 4, Cachè, another New York-based chain filed Chapter 11. In addition to these, Jones New York and Kate Spade Saturday recently announced that their retail locations would be closing. Even Gap Inc. recently revealed that it would close about 175 stores in North America over the next few years.

On the job front, “The retail sector still has not received a significant bump from the lower gas prices that have persisted throughout this year, although a recent increase in credit-card debt suggests that consumers may be loosening up,” noted Hessam Nadji Walnut Creek-based senior EVP at Marcus & Millichap, in a recent story.

If one thing is true for retail in the past 15 years, it is that it has evolved. Last summer, GlobeSt.com published a bold statement from North American Properties that said, “Malls are giving way to hot retail and restaurant concepts in urban mixed-use locations with strong walkability.” The firm's managing partner, Mark Toro, said, “Nationally, consumers are shifting away from traditional malls and seeking a unique experience... This is what the new-class of consumer is demanding and retailers are listening.”

But many sources say the notion of the American mall being dead is an overstatement. Irvine, CA-based Scott Hook, an EVP at Coldwell Banker Commercial Alliance, told Real Estate Forum last year that the traditional mall is not going away any time soon. “While the dynamics of what we have come to expect from malls may be changing, this is still a viable component of the overall retail sector.”

Much like the fabled phoenix, malls will continue to survive so long as they are “reborn” with uses that are relevant and resonate with a discriminating public, agreed Los Angeles-based Derrick Moore, principal of urban retail properties at Avison Young. Moore said to “look for malls to anchor themselves with food-related anchors—restaurants and specialty markets—as the public continues the trend toward healthier selections and increased entertainment in the culinary spaces.”

Foodies are everywhere, Moore observes, and “in order to remain relevant, malls will need to upgrade their food courts and full-service selections with trendier and more exciting restaurant concepts. Celebrity chefs and some of the successful food truck concepts may see an increase in offers from mall owners as well.”

So, what will tomorrow bring for retail? Retail may change as we know it. But evolution and transformation will remain key.

Newport Beach, CA-based Ian Brown, managing director of Newmark Grubb Knight Frank, tells GlobeSt.com that the retail market is back and “a high tide raises all boats.” All markets throughout the nation are experiencing varying degrees of increasing retail property values, higher rents, and shrinking vacancies, he says.

A major factor in these trends, he says, can be attributed to the relative lack of new development since 2008. “It's a good time to be a landlord. Class A retail space is typically leased up; B space is leasing up nicely; and many C spaces are finally being repurposed from the blight of redundant and perennially vacant stores into residential and/or mixed-use projects.”

As for how it has evolved, Brown says that retail is constantly evolving but never so much as in the last decade.

“Savvy property owners and developers have been repositioning traditional malls into relevant community gathering centers by adding strategic elements such as residential, health clubs, daily needs retailers, and entertainment venues,” Brown says. “In many centers landlords have been eschewing some national credit brands in favor of local/regional artisan retailers and restaurants that better reflect that specific area's culture and lifestyle. There has become a greater focus on what makes the center unique and exciting as opposed to selecting tenants who have the best credit.”

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.