Maybe the Fed will raise rates in September, but it is far from certain. The dollar remains very strong, Europe remains with numerous political and economic problems, and China continues to go through a very rough spot. Oil is already low partially due to the dollar and a rise in rates might push oil even lower. The stock market is weak and wages are stagnant. While jobs are increasing the number of new jobs is barely outpacing the growth in population, so there is still considerable slack. U6 is still very high for this stage of the cycle. Inflation remains very low. All in all there should be no real economic reason to raise rates. There is nothing happening in the economy that needs slowing down. Just the opposite. Instead of worrying about rates, we need to be very worried about an ridiculous increase in crushing regulations. EPA is completely out of control. Now HUD wants to take over local zoning and financially punish any town that does not build what HUD decides is enough housing for minorities-as though they know anything. The NLRB thinks there are no contractors –only full wage earners with full benefits and tyhey are trying to claim there is no such thing essentially as a franchise by claiming the parent company is the real employer. And now we have the severe restrictions on power plants that will cost the economy billions top accomplish nothing. California should be the prime example of what happens to small business when regulation crushes it. Everyone is looking at the wrong thing by focusing on a very small rate increase.
One of the really good things out of the debate is that virtually all of the real candidates-Trump is not a real candidate- promised to reverse all of Obama's executive orders and regs like the above on day one. That single step would be the spark the economy requires and will set things in motion to restart economic growth. If Hilary or Biden get elected this will not happen and we will remain mired in slow growth for years. Elizabeth warren would have even more destructive power and most of the real estate industry would have new problems getting the projects and deals funded. Pay attention to this one issue if no other- the removing of all these economy killing regs and a rewrite of Obamacare.
Here is my analysis of the debate. Trump is in it for the ego and publicity so he can charge higher royalties. Of the second tier only Fiorina is viable and she is running to be VP. She knows she cannot get the top spot. She was a lousy campaigner for Senate and lost. As a woman she is almost a shoe in for the spot. Of the rest, only Bush, Walker, Rubio and Kasich have any chance at all. Bush looked really weak and like someone trying too hard not to make a mistake. Walker was not as sharp as hoped and went too far on the rape abortion issue and that is a killer in a general election. Rubio was excellent, but he looks so young. And Kasich probably has the best resume and would likely make a very good president. Everyone else is just noise until the primaries. Rubio-Fiorina would crush Hillary.
Just so it is clear, Donald did not personally file for Chapter 11 because Steve Bollenbach did a great job saving his butt and the banks at the time decided it was easier to work it out with Bollenbach than to take Trump down completely and try to unwind the mess. That I got from a banker directly involved at the time. The real person who had the experience and brains of the Art of The deal was Bollenbach, not Trump. Donald owns almost nothing himself outright, but he does own royalty contracts and small subordinated carried interests in other people's projects. He personally has developed very little for years. Someone else is the developer and he licenses his name. This is what most of those 500+ LLC's are all about. The rating agencies are not rating any paper from Trump. For all his self proclaimed wealth, and supposed self claimed ownership of real estate, he only has $300 million of debt. That alone should tell you much more about the real asset values and how much he really owns himself. That is off his financial disclosure statement. You work back from $300 million of debt and make your own estimate of his real asset values and net worth. He likely would say he does not need to borrow. What developer says that? Who builds all cash? I don't know the reality of Trump's financial, and I don't think anyone really knows because you would need all of those agreements for royalties and carried interests, and then you would need the financials on each project to come up with a true net present value of his subordinated carried interests. Trump can claim anything and there is no way to prove it wrong.
I predict Rubio or Fiorina or both are on the ticket. Unless Trump runs as an independent and does it out of spite and to get favors from Hillary, the Republicans sweep.
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Joel Ross
Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.
