Maybe the Fed will raise rates in September, but it is far from certain.  The dollar remains very strong, Europe remains with numerous political and economic problems, and China continues to go through a very rough spot. Oil is already low partially due to the dollar and a rise in rates might push oil even lower. The stock market is weak and wages are stagnant. While jobs are increasing the number of new jobs is barely outpacing the growth in population, so there is still considerable slack. U6 is still very high for this stage of the cycle. Inflation remains very low.  All in all there should be no real economic reason to raise rates. There is nothing happening in the economy that needs slowing down. Just the opposite. Instead of worrying about rates, we need to be very worried about an ridiculous increase in crushing regulations. EPA is completely out of control. Now HUD wants to take over local zoning and financially punish any town that does not build what HUD decides is enough housing for minorities-as though they know anything. The NLRB thinks there are no contractors –only full wage earners with full benefits and tyhey are trying to claim there is no such thing essentially as a franchise by claiming the parent company is the real employer. And now we have the severe restrictions on power plants that will cost the economy billions top accomplish nothing. California should be the prime example of what happens to small business when regulation crushes it. Everyone is looking at the wrong thing by focusing on a very small rate increase.

 

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