SAN FRANCISCO–The Bay Area may have finally bumped into a retail ceiling, after four straight quarters of positive net absorption. Overall occupancy leveled off at the end of the second quarter at 97.08% occupancy, a slight tick down from the all-time high of 97.34% achieved in the prior quarter, according to John Cumbelich & Associates' of the Bay Area's flagship power center inventory quarterly survey.

In addition to absorption in the overall market flattening out during the second quarter, each of the San Francisco Bay Area's four submarkets recorded minor pullbacks in occupancy during the quarter. But these increases in vacancy were very small, as the East Bay, Peninsula and North Bay markets each had vacancy gains of 12,000 to 15,000 square feet, which amounted to less than half of 1% in change. The South Bay market was virtually unchanged, with a mere 2,000 square feet in net new vacancy.

Perhaps a more telling fact than the market's robust 97.08% occupancy rate was the addition of a sixth power center to the list of 100% occupied assets. The final vacancy at the Federal Realty's 453,500-square-foot East Bay Bridge center was absorbed during the second quarter, thus becoming the third largest fully occupied power center in Northern California, trailing only Bridgepointe and Santa Rosa Marketplace. These six centers alone total 2.47 million square feet of fully occupied flagship retail space, or 20% of the entire inventory of leased space.

The fully occupied centers and corresponding square feet are Bridgepointe at 550,331; Santa Rosa Marketplace at 541,693; East Bay Bridge Center at 453,500; San Jose Market Center at 356,000; South Napa Marketplace at 349,530; and Potrero Center at 226,642 square feet.

At the end of last quarter, every Bay Area submarket posted occupancy levels in excess of 95%, paced by the San Francisco Peninsula (98.47%) and the North Bay (98.40%). The East Bay, while boasting historic rent levels and multiple new retail developments under construction, including Regency's Persimmon Place and Terramar's Orchards at Walnut Creek, finished the quarter at a 95.32% occupancy rate. Larger vacancies on the Highway 4 corridor in Pittsburg and Antioch, as well as at Pacific Commons in Fremont, were the primary factors in the relatively higher vacancy rate.

John Cumbelich, chief executive officer, tells GlobeSt.com: “The San Francisco Bay Area market is in a unique place right now, as the market is experiencing historic occupancy and rent levels. With six of our flagship power centers at 100% occupancy, demand for new space is high and inventory is constrained. Despite these fundamentals, new power center development is lacking, meaning there is likely lost opportunity in the market for developers and institutions. With the local economy, fueled by Silicon Valley and the venture capital industries continuing to hum, and historic low interest rates, the region is poised for continued strong leasing and an emergence of new development.”

In other recent retail news, The Shops at Tanforan have sold, as previously reported.

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Lisa Brown

Lisa Brown is an editor for the south and west regions of GlobeSt.com. She has 25-plus years of real estate experience, with a regional PR role at Grubb & Ellis and a national communications position at MMI. Brown also spent 10 years as executive director at NAIOP San Francisco Bay Area chapter, where she led the organization to achieving its first national award honors and recognition on Capitol Hill. She has written extensively on commercial real estate topics and edited numerous pieces on the subject.