IRVINE, CA—Auction.com projects that existing home sales for the month of August will show the strongest year-over-year gain in nearly two years.
In its just-released its Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast, the firm predicts that August numbers will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.46 and 5.86 million annual sales, with a targeted number of 5.64 million – up 1% from July and 12.9% from a year ago, the
“We may be looking at the beginning of a shift in existing home sales activity,” said Auction.com executive vice president Rick Sharga. “The volume of sales, while continuing to increase, appears to be slowing down. And home prices, which have consistently appreciated over the past few years, may finally be leveling off.”
Earlier this month, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its existing home sales data for July, reporting that home sales were at 5.59 million units, up 10.3% year-over-year and in line with Auction.com's nowcast point estimate of 5.57 million units – a prediction that beat the consensus estimate calling for a 1.6% decline to 5.40 million units. “Limited inventory of homes for sale – especially entry level homes for first-time home buyers – will make it hard for the market to reach higher numbers in 2015,” Sharga noted. “This is true for both existing home sales and new home sales, where inventory is improving, but still near a 40-year low.”
NAR also reported a 5.6% year-over-year increase in median existing home prices July to $234,000, just 5.1 percent off of the peak level and up nearly 36% from the trough. This number was well within the range of $227,170 and $251,082 that Auction.com predicted last month. Findings from the Nowcast suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $219,132 and $242,199 in the month of August, with a targeted price of $230,666. This represents a 1.4% month-over-month decrease, but a 5.6% year-over-year increase for the month.
The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google chief economist Hal Varian, Auction.com's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.
Auction.com will occasionally update its nowcast as fresh data provides additional signals for current home sales activity. The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast model has proven highly accurate over the course of 2014 and into 2015.
Auction.com, LLC, is the nation's leading online real estate marketplace. Founded in 2007, the company has sold more than $30 billion in residential and commercial real estate assets. Auction.com has more than 900 employees and headquarters in Irvine and Silicon Valley.
Existing Home Sales
| Month | Reported Existing Home Sales (in millions) | Auction.com Point Estimate (SAR in millions) | Auction.com Predicted Range (SAR in millions) |
| July 2014 | 5.07 | 5.11 | 4.99 – 5.22 |
| August 2014 | 5.00 | 5.19 | 5.09 – 5.30 |
| September 2014 | 5.10 | 5.08 | 4.91 – 5.24 |
| October 2014 | 5.16 | 5.13 | 4.96 – 5.30 |
| November 2014 | 4.95 | 5.16 | 4.99 – 5.33 |
| December 2014 | 5.07 | 5.03 | 4.85 – 5.21 |
| January 2015 | 4.82 | 5.01 | 4.83 – 5.19 |
| February 2015 | 4.89 | 5.03 | 4.87 – 5.19 |
| March 2015 | 5.19 | 5.06 | 4.90 - 5.22 |
| April 2015 | 5.04 | 5.33 | 5.16 – 5.50 |
| May 2015 | 5.32 | 5.31 | 5.14 – 5.48 |
| June 2015 | 5.48 | 5.53 | 5.35 – 5.71 |
| July 2015 | 5.59 | 5.56 | 5.38 – 5.74 |
| August 2015 | TBD | 5.64 | 5.46 – 5.82 |
Existing Home Sales Pricing
| Month | Reported Existing Home Price | YoY % Change | Auction.com Point Estimate | YoY % Change | Auction.com Predicted Range |
| July 2014 | $221,600 | 4.3% | $219,381 | 3.3% | $208,412 - $230,350 |
| August 2014 | $218,400 | 4.1% | $219,148 | 4.5% | $208,190 - $230,105 |
| September 2014 | $209,100 | 5.3% | $214,433 | 8% | $203,712 - $225,155 |
| October 2014 | $207,500 | 5.1% | $205,922 | 4.3% | $195,626 - $216,218 |
| November 2014 | $207,200 | 6% | $204,204 | 4.5% | $193,993 - $214,414 |
| December 2014 | $208,200 | 5.3% | $205,783 | 4.1% | $195,493 - $216,072 |
| January 2015 | $197,600 | 5.2% | $205,126 | 9.2% | $194,869 - $215,382 |
| February 2015 | $201,900 | 7.2% | $201,077 | 6.7% | $191,023 - $211,131 |
| March 2015 | $210,700 | 7.1% | $204,165 | 3.8% | $193,956 - $214,373 |
| April 2015 | $219,400 | 8.9% | $211,633 | 5% | $201,052 - $222,215 |
| May 2015 | $228,700 | 7.9% | $220,799 | 4.2% | $209,759 - $231,839 |
| June 2015 | $236,400 | 6.5% | $228,929 | 3.1% | $222,098 - $245,477 |
| July 2015 | $234,000 | 5.6% | $239,126 | 7.7% | $227,170 - $251,082 |
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David Phillips
David Phillips is a Chicago-based freelance writer and consultant with more than 20 years experience in business and community news. He also has extensive reporting experience in the food manufacturing industry for national trade publications.
