SAN FRANCISCO—Growth signs abound with respect to San Francisco's outlook. While it is competing with Houston and Seattle as the number one urban economy in the country, it has the highest average weekly wages, downtown office vacancy rates, multi-family residential permits (year over year), total residential permits and single-family home prices when compared to other major US cities. The expectation is that San Francisco will continue to do well because of energy and tech.

Total construction starts were $2 billion as of second quarter, an increase of 51% from the previous quarter. The CMD stats snapshot showed increases almost across the board, with commercial construction activity increasing nearly 71% from the first quarter ($265.5 million) to second quarter ($454.6 million); heavy engineering increasing nearly 49% from the first quarter ($131.3 million) to the second quarter ($195.7 million); retail construction, a major category of commercial work, increased 76% between the quarters as did government office construction (269 %), but office construction decreased dramatically, at nearly 98%. Institutional construction also decreased 4% from between the quarters.

We spoke with Alex Carrick, CMD chief economist, for insight into the stats generated by CMD and the impact the numbers have on San Francisco real estate.

GlobeSt.com: Overall commercial construction starts increased from first to second quarter but office and hotel starts declined. What's the likely reason?

Alex Carrick: San Francisco has the lowest downtown office vacancy rate in the country at 5.7%. Occasionally, there are anomalies in the numbers based on projects that may have started earlier and are still being developed, but aren't counted as new starts in the second quarter. With such a low office vacancy rate, there's going to be office construction. Developers are drawn to a low number like we are seeing now.

Also, some office starts might be captured in residential projects because you can have mixed-use projects that are categorized as residential that include a big office component as well as condos. Some of the office starts might be hidden in mixed use projects (and classification might be off).

GlobeSt.com: How does the decline of institutional starts factor into all of the other indicators of prosperity?

Carrick: There's a lot of variability in this information depending on whether a project goes ahead in any given time frame. San Francisco is doing great and Institutional starts will eventually follow. Surprisingly, compared to other major US cities, California is near the bottom in terms of education and health employment. This might be because there is more concentration on the high-tech sector and mixed-use projects, instead of construction and increases in employments in these areas, but it's hard to be certain. It may be that that's already happened. San Francisco may have already spent a lot of money in those areas so the growth isn't as strong, but I wouldn't read much into this slight decline.

GlobeSt.com: What sector did declining oil prices impact the most?

Carrick: Not sure it's had much of an impact, except that it's giving San Francisco an advantage over Houston in terms of the race between the two cities for the number one urban economy.

GlobeSt.com: Any additional insights about San Francisco construction?

Carrick: Because of the recent California drought, construction throughout the state is geared more towards water conservation–the rest of the country has been into energy conservation–however, this implies energy conservation to an extent because some power is generated through hydro projects.

Also, I'm finding when I look at projects, the Bay Area is more interested in setting architectural trends. For example, Google has the Mountain View, CA campus under construction and Apple has the spaceship project in Cupertino, CA. Because of San Francisco's focus on high tech, we're often seeing cutting-edge architectural design coming from the region.

As for possible speedbumps ahead, Chinese money might not be as available because China's economy isn't doing as well and the Yuan is being slightly devalued.

With oil prices in a slump, the high-tech sector has assumed the mantel of growth leader among US industries. San Francisco is first among major American cities according to numerous yardsticks on the economy, including labor markets, housing prices and construction starts. In summary, it's a great time to be conducting business and undertaking capital investments along the San Francisco to San Jose corridor.

Another outlook on construction starts was previously reported earlier this spring.

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Lisa Brown

Lisa Brown is an editor for the south and west regions of GlobeSt.com. She has 25-plus years of real estate experience, with a regional PR role at Grubb & Ellis and a national communications position at MMI. Brown also spent 10 years as executive director at NAIOP San Francisco Bay Area chapter, where she led the organization to achieving its first national award honors and recognition on Capitol Hill. She has written extensively on commercial real estate topics and edited numerous pieces on the subject.