Curious which ports are best positioned for 2016, 2021 and beyond and why? GlobeSt.com got the answer as we recently chatted with Mark Levy, JLL managing director and lead of JLL's Ports Airports and Global Infrastructure practice group. Levy also talks about the future of industrial, how the utilization of space has changed and more in the exclusive Q&A below.

GlobeSt.com: What current trends are influencing demand for industrial real estate?

Mark Levy: Several national economic indicators are healthy. When comparing 2007 to 2014, there were 18.2 million more people/consumers in the US; total retail sales were up 17.3%; and ocean containerized cargo volume (measured in TEUs) was 8.1% higher. Additionally, the nation's housing market is progressively recovering, which benefits big-ticket retail item sales such as furniture and major appliances.

All of these influence demand for industrial real estate. JLL actively tracks tenant requirements in excess of 100,000 square feet to offer a glimpse into which industries will impact the nation's industrial markets, and demand totaled 249.3 million square feet across the nation in June 2015. By industry, retail requirements led with 75.8 million square feet, while 3PLs & transport companies followed with 45.6 million square feet.

GlobeSt.com: How has the utilization of industrial space changed in the past 10 years?

Levy: Automation has become increasingly important as a means to expedite the flow of goods into and out of a facility. So has maximizing the operational efficiencies of how space is utilized. As a result, many of the features of today's modern buildings are very different than what they were 10-years ago.

Here is a hypothetical comparison of a 'modern' facility:

Then (1995)

Average facility size: 230,000 square feet

Column spacing: 40' x 44'

Clearance height: 28'

Number of dock-high doors per 10,000 square feet: 1.3

Average truck court depth: 130'

Truck parking per 10,000 square feet: 2.2

Now (2015)

Average facility size: 550,000 square feet

Column spacing: 52' x 52'

Clearance height: 32' to 36'

Number of dock-high doors per 10,000 square feet: 3.5

Average truck court depth: 185'

Truck parking per 10,000 square feet: 3.5

GlobeSt.com: Given all of the competition for inbound ship traffic amongst U.S. East Coast seaports in advance of the expanded Panama Canal scheduled for next year – which ports are best positioned for 2016, 2021 and beyond and why?

Levy: The Port of New York / New Jersey is the nation's third busiest and its cargo volumes exceeded 2007 levels by a staggering 40.9 percent. With direct access to the Northeast's highly dense population, volumes will only increase – especially when a raised Bayonne Bridge is ready by the second half of 2016. This will pave the way for ships carrying up to 14,000 TEUs to call on the port as they traverse the Suez Canal or a newly expanded Panama Canal. On-dock rail connections with the new ExpressRail System will help expedite traffic flows, as cargo makes its way via Norfolk Southern and CSX rail lines throughout the Northeast.

Savannah is the nation's fourth busiest container seaport with 2014 volumes exceeding 2007 by 28.5 percent. Savannah is essentially a quickly growing throughput hub with CSX and Norfolk Southern rail lines to Atlanta. Port volume growth has been explosive over the past few decades, and much of this can be traced to the Southeast's emergence as a major manufacturing hub. Work recently began to dredge Savannah Harbor to 47 feet.

Charleston, like Savannah, is a throughput hub with rail connectivity being one of its core strengths. Namely, an on-dock Norfolk Southern line (with double-stacking capabilities) runs 212 miles inland to Greer, South Carolina. Greer is home to the 220-acre South Carolina Inland Port (opened in 2013), where Michelin, BMW and other international manufacturers operate. The location is within a one-day drive time to more than 95 million consumers, and the rail line serves as a vital land-to-water bridge to send exports to global markets. The port is seeking approval to deepen its entire channel to 54 feet.

Virginia is an access point to the Mid-Atlantic's population and has on-dock rail connections – with double-stacking capabilities – to markets like Columbus and Chicago via Norfolk Southern's “Heartland Corridor”. Both Virginia and Baltimore have channels deep enough to handle today's modern container vessels, yet Virginia's double-stacking rail network gives it a distinct advantage over its neighbor to the north.

GlobeSt.com: What are the current most important drivers for supply chain executives when developing their strategies?

Levy: Risk mitigation has become increasingly important in recent years as a means to handle potential supply chain disruptions, whether it is a seaport labor dispute or capacity constraints in the trucking industry during peak shipping months. As supply chain disruptions cost companies an estimated $2.3 billion annually, many executives are trying to combat them by:

  • Diversifying manufacturing and sourcing (regionalization)
  • Relying on multiple seaports for goods entry
  • Seeking access to multi-modal transportation options (e.g. intermodal rail rather than solely relying on trucking)

GlobeSt.com: What is your prediction for market share and industrial occupancy on West vs. East coast for the remainder of the year and into 2016?

Levy: JLL estimates a 50-50 TEU market share split between West and East Coast ports by 2016. This stems from: 1) Shippers increasingly calling on multiple ports to minimize potential supply chain disruptions (rather than solely relying, for instance, on Los Angeles/Long Beach) and 2) The 2016 opening of a new Panama Canal—shipping from Shanghai to New York is two days faster through Panama than the Suez Canal.

Much of the highly publicized cargo shift to the eastern seaboard is discretionary (goods not destined for local consumption, but can move through any entry point of the shipper's choosing), however. At the end of the day, industrial markets in notable population centers will continue to fare well: It's a matter of where goods ultimately end up, rather than where they enter the continent.

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Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.