SAN FRANCISCO—Robust job growth among firms employing fewer than 50 people, office tenants who are requiring more collaborative workspaces and fewer private ones, and the ascension of 18-hour cities as magnets for capital. These are among the major trends influencing the commercial real estate industry, according to the 37th annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016, co-published by the Urban Land Institute and PwC US, which was released Wednesday at the ULI Fall Meeting.
According to the report, 46% of new job growth that has occurred since 2013 has taken place in firms employing fewer than 50 workers—a rate five times that of job growth within companies that employ more than 1,000 people. This trend is playing out in the kinds of office spaces, as well as in a new approach to parking that reflects an increasingly mobile and remote workforce, according to Andy Warren, PwC's director of real estate research and co–principal author of the report with Anita Kramer, ULI senior vice president and director of ULI's Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate.
"The office is a barometer of change," Warren said. "We consider it a petri dish for how things are going in the market." Not only is private space for individual workers shrinking and the demand for open, collaborative and flex spaces growing, but the lack of new office construction in recent years and the need to retrofit existing office product for today's commercial tenants are presenting tremendous opportunities for the real estate sector, he said.
"The potential for office development is high," said Warren, particularly because contract work via the gig economy and job growth in the technology, advertising, media and information (TAMI) industries continues to be robust.
Among the markets to watch identified by Emerging Trends, the newcomers to the top 10 list—including Atlanta, Dallas/Fort Worth, Charlotte, Nashville and Portland, OR—reflect the desire by Millennials and other demographic groups to gravitate toward 18-hour cities for job opportunities, urban lifestyle and amenities. New York City, Boston, San Francisco (number seven) and Washington D.C. are all 24-hour global cities that moved down the list for 2016.
The panel discussion that followed Warren's presentation cautioned against investing too heavily in these 18-hour markets, however. While the trend may result in outsized and short-term gains, a portfolio strategy that favors the global gateway cities that have lasting value during many cycles may be a wise one.
The panel also advised a measured outlook and emphasized the need for investment diversification. While 84% of Emerging Trends respondents reported their business prospects in the coming year were good or excellent, a recession may not be that far off in the future, particularly since the 2016 cycle eerily resembles the pre–Great Recession conditions of 2006, said Mary K. Ludgin, director of global investment research at Heitman. "None of us knows what will be the trigger for the next recession," she said, adding that it will likely not be as widespread or focused on housing as it was in 2007, but that it could affect certain markets and sectors acutely.”
Other noteworthy trends identified in the report include a reconsideration of suburbs as attractive and affordable places to live, particularly those that mimic the dense, transit-oriented and walkable CBDs. As they start to settle down and have children, Millennials are increasingly opting for these locations.
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