NEW YORK CITY—Given its ability to provide information to the masses—not to mention the creation of the online experience—the Internet, it's fair to say, transformed commercial real estate.
Next on the horizon? Driverless cars. This new technology, which isn't even on many executives' radar screens, is going to be a shattering disruption of the industry, predicts Joe Derhake, president, Partner Engineering and Science, a GlobeSt.com Thought Leader.
“The driverless car will have a bigger effect on real estate than the Internet did because transportation is so primary to the industry,” he asserts.
Derhake, who will offer up a presentation on this topic at RealShare New York on Wednesday, noted several ways in which the new cars will create an impact.
People who commute by car will now be free to read, play cards or the like while being taken to work, he explains, increasing their “commuting tolerance.” That could change how people choose where to live, an exercise usually dictated by how far away the residence is from someone's office. “Quality will win out over proximity,” according to Derhake.
Further, if the whole of the labor force not already using mass transit can be moved around this way, people likely will use taxi service or rental cars rather than own vehicles, Derhake predicts, eliminating the need for garages and parking lots. “It will change how real estate is laid out and built.”
But how can property builders and investors, prepare for such a sea change? “It involves critical thinking,” he says, “asking ourselves 'what kind of real estate will become obsolete?'” Still, that's not an issue that's going to play out in the near-term—for the most part.
“It will take driverless cars 20 years to make certain types of commercial real estate obsolete,” Derhake assures. “But it'll create some development challenges and opportunities.”
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