NEW YORK CITY—After declaring that the city is in the “the golden age of real estate,” ALM Real Estate Media VP and group publisher Michael Desiato kicked off RealShare New York, adding, “I never thought I'd be saying that after what we went through.”
As the industry braces itself for the next sea change, Joe Derhake, president, Partner Engineering and Science, a GlobeSt.com Thought Leader, discussed the big potential impact on commercial real estate of a new type of transportation.
“Driverless cars are going to be a larger disruption to commercial real estate than the Internet,” he forecasted. “The car is more primary to the industry.”
The vehicles could mark an end to car ownership natiowide as users could be picked up with the touch of a button, Derhake explained.
Mercedes' prototype includes a swiveling passenger seat in the front, “allowing you to play cards with or talk to the passenger in the back,” he suggested. “In general, this will make people much more 'commute tolerant,' and that changes the economics of real estate. Ordinarily, people look to not live 'way out there' but an hour or two away from work would become tolerable. In that situation, people will buy or rent housing based on quality rather than proximity.”
This commuting revolution may curtail—or even put an end to—the need for parking lots, Derhake asserted, adding to the changes to real estate that driverless cars would bring on. “Building codes code could change from, say, one spot per 4,000 cars to one per 6000 and if you take parking lots away, you can increase density.”
Notably, the shift could have a transformative effect on the industrial sector, he said. “If cars drive themselves, so can trucks, and they could operate 24 hours a day. This could change where Walmart puts distribution centers,” and of course impact other players in the space.
RealShare attendees still appeared doubtful but Derhake had a cautionary tale. “If you were buying a property in the early 1990s with Borders bookstore, Radio Shack and Blockbuster, they were credit tenants. But then Amazon launched,” and that changed everything.
“The risk that's hard to understand is obsolescence,” he warned. “But driverless cars are ready.”
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