NEW YORK CITY—With all due respect to Elvis Presley, retailers could be in for a green Christmas this year rather than a blue one, according to holiday sales forecasts. Fung Business Intelligence Centre's Deborah Weinswig predicts an increase of 3% to 4% in consumer spending during November and December, in line with the International Council of Shopping Centers' recent report that more Americans plan holiday-related purchases this year, for a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.
Executive director and head of global retail & technology at FBIC, Weinswig projects holiday spending levels between $626 billion and $633 billion this year. “Although the growth rate may be slightly lower than the 4% recorded in 2014, it is still within range of holiday spending growth rates recorded each year since 2012,” she writes.
Helping matters for retailers, whether brick-and-mortar or Web-based, will be one more shopping day between Thanksgiving and Christmas, which falls on a Friday this year. Chanukah runs from Monday, Dec. 7 through Monday, Dec. 14 this year, a date sequence that also will add to the post-Thanksgiving rush, according to Weinswig.
The percentage of holiday sales over the Internet will continue to grow, according to Weinswig. Within the digital domain, sales via mobile devices accounted for 16% of digital commerce in the second quarter, twice the share in Q2 2013.
That being said, ICSC's Consumer Report says that 95% of holiday shoppers plan to make a purchase in a physical store this year. “With gas prices and unemployment down, and housing prices up, holiday shoppers are heading into the season with increased confidence in their spending power,” says an ICSC spokesman.
Although “certain headwinds exist,” including uncertainty in global financial markets and minimal wage growth domestically, “the positive macroeconomic trends are likely to win out and propel retail sales throughout the holiday season,” according to ICSC's spokesman. “As a result, it appears to be shaping up as a solid season for retailers, and if ICSC's forecast holds, one that would better the average of the previous 10 seasons by 1.5 percentage points.” ICSC's report says that 90% of Americans plan to make holiday purchases this year, up from 82% last year., and 80% of shoppers plan to spend at least as much as they did in '14.
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Paul Bubny
Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.
