CHICAGO—E-commerce has already transformed the world of warehousing and logistics, and according to Colliers International Group Inc. everything indicates that this process will continue.

The company recently issued “From First Mile to Last Mile,” a study of the logistics sector in the globe's six major regions, which found that e-commerce will create the need for a revamped supply chain, from new mega distribution facilities at the first stage to a host of smaller fulfillment centers and package pick-up options that cover the last mile of delivery. And delivery companies could still be caught flat-footed by the changes in store.

"If they are not paranoid about what Amazon is planning, they ought to be," Jack H. Rosenberg, principal with Colliers in Chicago and the national director of the firm's transportation and logistics group, tells GlobeSt.com. "They are trying to break the duopoly of Federal Express and UPS."

"Wall Street has given the company a pass on earnings,' he adds, which allows it to put billions into a development pipeline that will force other firms to respond in kind. Amazon has absorbed almost two million square feet  this year in the Chicago area alone, an indication both of the scale of its ambitions and the importance of Chicago as a primary center for e-commerce distribution.

As home to the nation's busiest inland port, with direct rail connections to the west coast ports in Long Beach/ LA, the upcoming changes will make an especially big impact in the Chicago area, Colliers believes. Both BNSF and UP have already begun enhancing their on-dock rail capabilities to expedite the flow of cargo from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to Chicago.

This will create more demand at the Chicago region's BNSF Logistics Park, a 435-acre facility and almost 2,000-acre industrial business park which began in 2000. "New infrastructure/developments continue to drive the success of this market – it was number one for net absorption and number two for investment transaction in H1 2015," Colliers found.

"All over the country, more intermodal facilities are being built," Rosenberg said, but new restrictions on the number of hours that truckers drive, and the need to raise the pay for a job no longer considered very desirable, means "trucking is going to be more expensive." As a result, trains will have to handle much of increased product flow in the coming years. "When Warren Buffett buys one of the major railroads, " he adds, referring to the $26.5 buillion purchase of BNSF in 2010, "its a good sign for the industry."

But the increasing demand from consumers for same-day delivery means new air freight facilities will also be needed, Rosenberg adds, And that will almost certaily change the landscape around many of the nation's airports, including Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. Like many, it is surrounded by a lot of older warehouse facilities unsuited to the intricate work done inside modern fulfillment centers. He expects developers to eventually tear down much of this older product. "We anticipate that fulfillment centers will take their place."

But the recent decisions by some landlords of large apartment complexes to stop accepting delivery of packages, due to the increasing volume, means fulfillment centers wont provide a complete solution. Distributors will still need to create facilities where customers can conveniently pick up their parcels. Walmart continues to experiment, Rosenberg says, and its ubiquity throughout the US could help it forge a link with many consumers. Most people live within five miles of a Walmart, and after purchasing a product online, could receive a notice to "stop by on your way home and pick up your package." 

“Our analysis finds that e-commerce and evolving delivery methods are the primary factors driving the shape of the logistics sector both today and in the future as e-retailing is slated to increase significantly in cities and towns across the globe,” says Dwight Hotchkiss, national director of industrial for Colliers in the US.