NEW YORK CITY—When Equity Residential announced its agreement earlier this week for a Starwood Capital Group fund to acquire 72 apartment communities for $5.365 billion, the Wall Street Journal wondered whether the deal was a sign that Equity was edging out of the sector. “Across the commercial-property sector, which includes office, retail and apartment buildings, growing numbers of investors have begun to question how long good times can last after a steep run-up in prices since the downturn,” the WSJ reported, and quoted EQR founder Sam Zell as saying the company has been “less aggressive as buyers of assets” in recent years.

Yet the article also quoted Barry Sternlicht, founder and chairman of Starwood Capital, as bullish on multifamily. “This is the healthiest US apartment market in my lifetime,” Sternlicht told the WSJ. “We don't see that trend reversing.” His company has acquired or agreed to acquire more than 67,000 apartment units in the past year, including the 23,262 in the EQR portfolio

Who's right here: Zell or Sternlicht? Judging by reports from Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings, both.

“In recent months, several of our rated multifamily REITs have announced sizable asset sale programs,” according to S&P's Multifamily REIT Outlook report, issued Wednesday. “Many REITs have opportunistically sold assets and taken advantage of attractive pricing on lower yielding assets in their portfolios,” with EQR's sale to Starwood Capital a case in point.

EQR has also announced plans to sell an additional 26 assets located in various submarkets in 2016, and expects to realize proceeds of approximately $700 million. “Through its asset sale program, EQR is focusing its portfolio on dense, urban cities with strong growth characteristics, and higher-entry-barrier markets with good supply/demand dynamics,” according to S&P's report. At the same time, "EQR is exiting older assets in weaker markets and opportunistically reallocating capital.”

Similarly, Fitch notes that following its dispositions, EQR will have 98% of its pro forma portfolio in the Boston, Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, DC markets, which the ratings agency views as having “above-average growth and liquidity through the cycle.” The sale to Starwood, and plans to sell to individual investors next year, “reflect positively on management strategy,” according to Fitch.

The disposition strategy illustrates that EQR is willing to shrink its portfolio “by selling assets at strong valuations and returning capital to shareholders, and also willing to maneuver to hold headline credit metrics at current levels,” says Fitch, which like S&P is maintaining its current rating on EQR. “Further, Fitch views positively the higher concentration of the portfolio in primary coastal, higher barrier-to-entry markets.”

S&P says it expects demand for multifamily assets in gateway cities and attractive urban markets to remain strong, “given the still relatively low interest rates and demand from private equity buyers. We also see potential for more REITs to go private as buyers capitalize on companies that are undervalued and are trading at a discount to net asset value.” It cites the recent sales of Home Properties Inc. to Lone Star Funds and Associated Estates Realty Corp. to Brookfield Asset Management as examples.

On the other hand, S&P notes that asset values in suburban markets—where most of the EQR portfolio trading to Starwood Capital is located—“may begin to stall as new supply gets added. Furthermore, if the economy weakens or if employment opportunities dry up, we would expect the suburban markets to be the more susceptible to value decline.”

Yet the ratings agency's summary of the apartment market's continuing viability appears to favor the $5.365-billion bet that Sternlicht is making. “We believe the underlying trends in the multifamily sector continue to be favorable and the long-term fundamentals are attractive,” according to S&P. “We believe the demand drivers for the multifamily sector are strong and sustainable over the near to intermediate term.”

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.